Last Name :  
Member ID :  
Password :
  You are logged in as Guest Home Advanced Search Feedback-Contact Us My Journal/Searches Tech Support Help
  INFORMS Homepage
  Editor-in-Chief Homepage
  Society link
  PubsOnLine - Library Access
  INFORMS Publications
  Copyright and Permissions
   
  Journals
Decision Analysis
Information Systems Research
INFORMS Journal on Computing
Interfaces
Management Science
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management
Marketing Science
Mathematics of Operations Research
Operations Research
Organization Science
Transportation Science
International Abstracts in Operations Research
  Electronic Journal
INFORMS Transactions on Education
  Membership Magazines
OR/MS Today
OR/MS Tomorrow
  Request for Subscription
   




 
 
 
 

Management Science
 
     
  Volume Number 47   Issue Number 1   First Page 102   Last Page 116   Cover Date January 01, 2001

 
 
 
Email to a friend

Add to Favorites

Full Text

Abstract PDF
 
 
     
  An Extreme-Value Model of Concept Testing
Ely Dahan, Haim Mendelson
 
 

We model concept testing in new product development as a search for the most profitable solution to a design problem. When allocating resources, developers must balance the cost of testing multiple designs against the potential profits that may result. We propose extreme-value theory as a mathematical abstraction of the concept-testing process. We investigate the trade-off between the benefits and costs of parallel concept testing and derive closed-form solutions for the case of profits that follow extreme-value distributions. We analyze the roles of the scale and tail-shape parameters of the profit distribution as well as the cost of testing in determining the optimal number of tests and total budget for the concept phase of NPD. Using an example, we illustrate how to estimate and interpret the scale and tail-shape parameters. We find that the impact of declining concept-testing costs on expected profits, the number of concepts tested, and total spending depend on the scale/cost ratio and tail-shape parameter of the profit distribution.

 
   
  Quick Search
   
   
   
     
  Featured Sites
 
 
Copyright © Informs 2008. All rights reserved.