Optimal Dynamic Control of an Epidemic

We analyze how to optimally engage in social distancing in order to minimize the spread of an infectious disease. We identify conditions under which any optimal policy is single peaked (i.e., first engages in increasingly more social distancing and subsequently decreases its intensity). We show that an optimal policy might substantially delay measures that decrease the transmission rate to create herd immunity and that engaging in social distancing suboptimally early can increase the number of fatalities. Finally, we find that optimal social distancing can be an effective measure to reduce the death rate of a disease.

Funding: P. Strack was supported by a Sloan Fellowship.