Challenging Times for the World and How Our Community Can Help

In my previous column, I had commented that “It’s a Wonderful Time in INFORMS’ History!” [1]. By contrast, it has been quite a challenging year for our world. The novel coronavirus was first detected in China, and at the time of this writing, there were over hundreds of thousands of confirmed cases and thousands of deaths around the world [2]. The World Health Organization (WHO) initially declared the outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern,” later raised its assessment of the global coronavirus risk from “high” to “very high,” to the highest level in a new four-stage alert system at WHO, and finally declared it a pandemic [3]. 

There are similarities between the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the seasonal flu, e.g., both viruses spread easily and cause similar symptoms. However, the “novelty” of the coronavirus means that our knowledge is still limited in terms of incubation duration, transmission, risk of complications and mortality, treatment (e.g., impact of antivirals), etc. In terms of numbers, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates 32-45 million flu illnesses in the United States during the 2019-2020 flu season, causing thousands of hospitalizations and deaths [4]. Based on current information, the coronavirus seems to cause more severe symptoms, progressing to pneumonia, and could have a higher transmission and mortality rate (especially for certain subpopulations) compared to seasonal flu. Due to lack of widespread testing in certain countries, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases could be a severe underestimate of the actual number of cases. 

In addition to public health, the impact of COVID-19 is already significant for many other sectors and the overall economy. Quarantines, travel restrictions, cancellation of certain programs and events, school or workplace closures, etc., help reduce the spread of disease via “social distancing,” [5] but also lead to disruptions in manufacturing and the flow of goods and services, impacting everyday lives.

As we continue to follow the developments, there are at least two important considerations for our INFORMS community, i.e., potential impact on our professional activities and what we can do to contribute to the understanding of the coronavirus disease and the intervention efforts. 

For INFORMS, the health and welfare of our members and conference attendees is top priority. INFORMS established a task team to actively monitor the situation following the information provided by CDC and other authorities. Due to the outbreak and expansion of COVID-19, the difficult decision was made to cancel the 2020 INFORMS Business Analytics Conference, which had been scheduled for April 26-28 in Denver. 

The IFORS triennial conference that was scheduled for June 21-26 in South Korea is also canceled. The organizers are examining options for rescheduling to a later date. 

Historically, our community has developed and used O.R. and analytics methods to “save lives, save money and solve problems,” and help make the world a better place. There is probably no better time to put our expertise and capabilities to good use! In a recent email communication, Dick Larson said: “Operations Research was born in war time, WWII, to be precise. … The new coronavirus is creating for us all a new world war, a war against the virus. … Isn’t it time for O.R. to again surface and play a lead scientific and engineering role in this massive effort?” The answer is yes. Many INFORMS members have worked on issues related to infectious diseases (including pandemic flu) [6, 7, 8, 9], healthcare, transportation, supply chains, finance, etc., and all of these sectors would benefit from the applications of O.R. and analytics as we face high levels of uncertainty and the potential for cascading impact across multiple sectors locally and globally. There are many decisions policymakers, businesses and communities need to make on a daily basis, ranging from the procurement and allocation of limited supplies of critical goods to managing employee absence to evaluating the effectiveness of intervention strategies (such as quarantining or canceling public gatherings and travel) to assessing the potential impact of the disease on supply chains. 

The INFORMS Public Affairs and Marketing team has been providing a variety of information to media and policy makers regarding the expertise of INFORMS members in these areas [10], and they are continuing to pursue opportunities for our community to engage. If you have relevant work in this area that you would like to share, please contact Jeff Cohen at [email protected]. 

Back to INFORMS business: As many of you know, INFORMS executive director Melissa Moore will retire in September. We are all grateful to Melissa for her excellent leadership and service to INFORMS over the years. The search for the next executive director has begun. Steve Graves and I co-lead the search, with search committee members Ramayya Krishnan, Victoria Chen, Dave Hunt, Brian Denton, Anne Robinson and Gina Lloyd. In late November, a request for proposals was sent to 12 executive search firms to assist us in the process and eight proposals were received. After careful consideration of various factors such as expertise, professionalism, process, cost and recent placements, Korn Ferry was selected to assist INFORMS with the search. The discovery phase of the search is now complete, the candidate profile is finalized, and the position has been posted. If you know of any qualified candidates, please contact Becky Graham at Korn Ferry ([email protected]) or visit the position website [11]. We expect the search committee to hold first-round interviews by mid-May and the final round interviews by mid-June. We will share progress updates in the coming weeks. 

Amid all the worldwide challenges, INFORMS completed its transition to a new member interface and management platform [12]. It is a wonderful achievement and the culmination of more than a year of dedication and intense work. On behalf of our entire community, I would like to express deepest gratitude to INFORMS staff for their tireless work, especially during these challenging times. 

INFORMS is a tight-knit community, let us continue to engage and support each other during these difficult times. I wish all of you and your families and loved ones around the world strength, courage, health and well-being. 

References and Notes

1. https://pubsonline.informs.org/do/10.1287/orms.2020.01.16/full/
2. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200318-sitrep-58-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=20876712_2
3. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020
4. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
5. https://www.ajc.com/blog/get-schooled/georgia-tech-professor-explains-how-social-distancing-slows-spread-covid/uqoFTDBn2btbfh7T18MwmJ/
6. Z. Li, J. Swann, P. Keskinocak, 2018, “Value of inventory information in allocating a limited supply of influenza vaccine during a pandemic,” PLOS One, Vol. 13, No. 10: e0206293.
7. A. Teytelman and R.C. Larson, 2012, “Modeling influenza progression within a continuous-attribute heterogeneous population,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 220, No. 1, pp. 238-250.
8. D.M. Aleman, T.G. Wibisono and B. Schwartz, 2011, “A nonhomogeneous agent-based simulation approach to modeling the spread of disease in a pandemic outbreak,” Interfaces, Vol. 41, No. 3, pp. 301-315.
9. P. Keskinocak, 2020, “In 'coronapocalypse' the worst shortages could be deadly,” The Hill, March 18, https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/488296-in-coronapocalypse-the-worst-shortages-could-be-deadly#bottom-story-socials.
10. https://www.informs.org/COVID19
11. https://kfopportunities.loop.jobs/job/Korn-Ferry-Executive-Search-Catonsville-Executive-Director-MD/105224870
12. http://info.informs.org/informs-self-service-upgrade