COVID-19 on a plane: Should the middle seat stay empty?

Arnold Barnett, a longtime INFORMS member, a professor of management science and statistics at MIT and a world renowned expert on aviation safety, has written a research paper, “COVID-19 Risk among Airline Passengers: Should the Middle Seat Stay Empty?” that should be of considerable interest to airlines and the flying public. According to Barnett’s research, the risk of contracting COVID-19 from a nearby passenger is about 1 in 4,300 as of early July 2020. Under the “middle seat empty” policy, that risk falls to about 1 in 7,700. Middle-seat passengers are at higher risk than others, according to Barnett’s calculations, who notes that when the plane is full, the risk is higher for every passenger.

The risk of actually dying from COVID-19 as a direct result of flying is “probably less than one in 500,000,” Barnett estimates, which, while small, is much higher than the probability of dying as a result of a commercial plane crash.

Barnett’s paper, which has not been peered reviewed, was the subject of several recent articles in mainstream media outlets including The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Fortune, Seattle PI, Business Insider and ZD Net (here and here).