Secure Elections, Misinformed Rhetoric

In August 2020, former President Donald Trump stated that “mail-in voting is going to be catastrophic, it’s going to make our country the laughing stock of the world” [1]. Despite this, more than 65.5 million Americans voted by mail in the 2020 general election [2]. It may not be a popular statement, but despite recent claims, mail-based voting is secure. History says so, and established process and research says so, too.

Mail-based voting isn’t new – it’s been used in U.S. elections since the Civil War [3]. Oregon has conducted elections fully by mail since 1998, Washington since 2011 and Colorado since 2013 [4]. Each state has done so without controversy or widespread questioning of the process. In addition to these states, Hawaii and Utah planned to hold the 2020 elections entirely by mail even before the COVID-19 pandemic. A report from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission shows that a majority of voters voted by mail in seven states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Montana, Oregon, Utah and Washington) in the 2016 election [5].

Yet, the volume of concern and criticism of mail-in voting as insecure and “a massive opportunity for voter fraud” [6] was magnified in this election. No human process is perfect, and, historically, this concern is disproportionate to reality. Between 2000 and 2012, there were only 491 cases of reported election fraud out of the “literally billions of votes cast” [7]. While this may make it more prevalent than in-person voter fraud [8], these numbers are miniscule, and the cost of disenfranchising voters unable or unwilling to vote in person is significant. Our ongoing research predicted no real potential for mail-based voting fraud to impact an election, and the outcomes of the election validated our risk models.

Rigorous Processes Ensure Security

Having worked with several Boards of Elections in the mid-Atlantic to analyze election threats and train poll workers to identify and mitigate security threats, we have seen the professionalism and rigorous processes that exist to ensure election security, whether it be for in-person or mail-based votes. Election threats are simply a list of things that can go wrong at a polling place or during the voting process; we define these vulnerabilities in terms of cyber, physical and insider/human threats [9]. Poll workers are our first line of defense in elections security. We have, specifically, worked to train poll workers [10] in Maryland to be aware of threats that may emerge at a polling place and then taught them how to fix those problems to keep voting secure [11].

Other than efforts to train poll workers to identify and prevent election security threats that may emerge during an election, U.S. election security has relied on diversity of voting equipment. Our research has shown that during the 2016 general election, the states that used a variety of equipment for voting were targeted for attack by adversaries less than those that used the same equipment across the entire state [12]. It has also shown that broadening how voters may submit their ballots through increased mail-based voting makes the election process even harder to successfully attack in a significant, meaningful way. Expanding on the threats defined by the U.S. Elections Assistance Commission to include new threats introduced by the increased use of mail-based voting due to COVID-19, our research predicted that external security threats to the 2020 general election would not be likely [13]. Furthermore, while some security threats will always remain, Boards of Elections across the country have the needed checks and balances in place to ensure the robustness, security and integrity of our election process.

No Evidence of Compromised Votes

There is no evidence that actual votes were compromised in 2016. Voting-related systems were targeted, but the actors did not alter any votes. A vast majority of votes were cast in 2016 in-person using electronic equipment, which, without protections, can be susceptible to a cyber threat. However, our research shows that mail-based voting makes attempts to attack votes even more difficult. For an adversary to corrupt the mail-based voting system and reach votes, they would need to breach the system multiple times and in multiple ways. This includes the electronic machinery but also hundreds of drop boxes and tens of thousands of USPS mailboxes. Our research shows that such physical attacks on drop boxes and mailboxes are very costly and difficult for the adversary [13], with low impacts for their efforts. Furthermore, the checks and balances in the system (such as being able to look up your mail ballot status online) increase the relative likelihood that any sort of interference would be discovered. 

Moreover, history has shown that the numerous checks and balances in the mail-based voting process also identify any sort of potential voter fraud. These processes worked in 2020, as the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania found only three cases of potential mail-based voter fraud; all are currently being prosecuted. There is no history of widescale mail-based voting fraud in any election, and if something would happen (like the Forty Fort, Pa., resident accused of casting a ballot for his deceased mother [14]), the system would detect it and stop it from happening.

Mail-based voting is secure. Paper-based voting makes it harder to attack votes. More votes are cast on paper when expanded mail voting is used. The overall health and safety of the voter in a global pandemic is preserved, and the integrity of their votes is not compromised with mail voting. Having a broad, expanded, distributed system makes it safer for the voter and from external adversarial threat. Additionally, mail-based voting increases voter access, strengthening our democracy by increasing the diversity of voices in the electorate.

Sadly, we only have ourselves to blame for the alleged mistrust in our election process; some Americans and elected officials are consuming, propagating and giving credibility to active, organized misinformation campaigns coming from politicians and mainstream media. A recent report from the Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University analyzed online media stories and social media posts to find that, primarily, former President Trump has manufactured the false idea that mail-based voting is open to rampant fraud, repeatedly magnifying it through media outlets and social media until it is accepted by large parts of the electorate [15].

Former President Trump’s truthiness [16] attempted to tear our country apart, and the only way to thwart this self-inflected threat to our democracy is to continue to vote and promote trust in the elections process. Millions of Americans voted through early in-person voting at polling places or by submitting their mail-in ballots. Rest assured that in 2020 your vote, and the process, was secure.

References

1. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53795876
2. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
3. https://www.history.com/news/vote-by-mail-soldiers-war
4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postal_voting_in_the_United_States#In_states
5. https://eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/6/2016_EAVS_Comprehensive_Report.pdf
6. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/vice-presidential-debate-the-university-utah-salt-lake-city
7. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/09/trump-is-wrong-about-dangers-absentee-ballots/
8. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/trumps-latest-voter-fraud-misinformation/
9. https://www.cfasociety.org/baltimore/Documents/BBR%202019/Price.pdf
10. https://www.wbal.com/article/484908/3/towson-u-trains-election-judges-in-election-security-threats
11. http://wp.towson.edu/bbr/2020/03/18/empowering-election-judges-to-secure-our-elections/
12. https://youtu.be/kzhyKqGYZA0
13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzhyKqGYZA0&feature=youtu.be
14. https://www.citizensvoice.com/news/crime-emergencies/forty-fort-man-applied-for-a-ballot-for-his-deceased-mother-detectives-allege/article_ec840c70-2ccc-58f2-b187-97036d6990de.html
15. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3703701
16. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truthiness