It’s all over but the shouting … and the virus

Welcome to the November/December 2020 issue of Analytics magazine, the last coronavirus issue of the year in what feels like the longest year in history. Sure, it was a leap year, but that only adds one day. This one seemed to have lasted forever, given the and the associated loss of lives, jobs and social interaction around the world, and 2020 still has a few months to go as the carnage continues.

Somehow, the political discourse turned COVID-19 into a political issue (who on Earth supports a deadly pandemic?), which only added to the global malaise, stress and sense of exhaustion. As I write this, the 2020 U.S. presidential election is just days away, but that won’t end the crisis, no matter who wins. In fact, it might even add to the chaos as election officials spend days counting and checking the enormous number of mailed-in ballots, and at least one candidate vows to challenge the results in court if the final results don’t go his way. It might be all over but the shouting, unfortunately, plenty of shouting remains.

In the October issue of OR/MS Today (the membership magazine of INFORMS), quantitative historian Allan Lichtman predicted a winner based on historic and recent events, but his analysis historically applies to the winner of the national vote. Of course, the actual winner of the presidency is based on the Electoral College, a quaint and somewhat misunderstood process established by the nation’s forefathers centuries ago to give less-populated states an equal say. As a result – and as we’ve seen in a couple of recent U.S. presidential elections ­ in the greatest democracy in the world, a simple majority doesn’t necessary rule.

Amid the madness of 2020, we see rays of sunshine in the huge turnout of voters thus far, some of whom waited in hours-long lines to be among the first to exercise their sacred right. This issue of Analytics magazine also offers several reasons to be optimistic about the future, starting with columns from two of our senior contributors, Vijay Mehrotra and Rajib Ghosh.

In his Analyze This! column, Vijay details how New Zealand, led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, implemented an aggressive “go hard, go early” response to the pandemic starting with significant restrictions on a nationwide basis that proved quite successful. While acknowledging New Zealand’s advantages in terms of geographical isolation and a relatively small population, Vijay notes an important similarity to the United States: a culture of individualism. So how did New Zealand succeed in getting its citizens to comply with pandemic mitigation mandates and thus help eradicate the virus? Prime Minister Ardern believed and supported the science behind the mitigation recommendations, acted immediately and decisively before the first confirmed case appeared in New Zealand, and, according to Vijay’s source Dr. Kevin Ross, projected the message that “the virus is the problem, not the people.”

Postscript: Ardern now enjoys historic high approval ratings, and in October she was re-elected in a historic landslide.

In his Healthcare Analytics column, Rajib presents his take on the coronavirus (“grim”), but offers this silver lining: “Fortunately, not everything is shrouded in darkness and despair. For the first time in the history of mankind, scientists around the world came together to work tirelessly – and are now very close to finding – vaccines for COVID-19 at unprecedented speed.” He adds, “Overall, we will end the year grieving loss of lives and gaping economic anxieties in the U.S. and around the world, but as health technology professionals and data aficionados, we will also look forward to 2021 with cautious optimism.”

While we’re all anxious to put 2020 in the rearview window, there’s obviously plenty of work to do not just between now and Jan. 1, 2021, but in the years and decades to follow. The future of analytics remains unlimited, and opportunities and obligations abound.