Estimating and Projecting Regional HIV/AIDS Cases and Costs, 1990–2000: A Case Study

We developed predictions of HIV/AIDS caseloads and costs for the Northern Virginia Planning District Commission as input to its continuing evaluation of the economic welfare of northern Virginia's cities and counties. We developed a series of procedures beginning with US case and cost estimates for the period 1990 to 2000 and leading to estimates of state and local HIV/AIDS cases and costs. As a result, we estimate that the annual incidence of AIDS in northern Virginia will increase from 391 in 1990 to 643 by 2000, while pre-AIDS prevalence will decline from a peak of about 6,900 in 1993 to about 4,400 in 2000. We estimate the medical costs to the region of AIDS (excluding pre-AIDS cases) will reach $65 million annually (1992 $) by the turn of the century.