Headstart Strategies for Combating Congestion

When a traveler, or other user of a congested system, wishes to be reasonably sure of reaching a destination, or finishing a task, on time he must start early enough to compensate for random delays. This paper investigates the headstart decision policy arising if costs are attached both to lateness and to an otherwise undesirable early departure. The model encompasses a case in which the probability distribution of congestion delays is unknown, and must be inferred from previous experience.