Validating a Large Scale Simulation Model of Wilderness Recreational Travel

A large-scale simulation model of the use of outdoor recreation areas, especially ones with dispersed recreation patterns, has been developed that provides a means for experimenting with modifications of use or area conditions to determine effects on use patterns and congestion. The model and its applications to date, especially to the Desolation Wilderness in California, are briefly discussed.

The main purpose of this paper, however, is to illustrate a validation procedure for such a large-scale simulation model, employing a series of validity tests. Because the question of validation has always constituted a thorny problem in the field of simulation, the paper attempts to show—in the context of a case study—how tests can go beyond the customary “tests of reasonableness” often employed in such cases.