Responding to Emergencies: Lessons Learned and the Need for Analysis

Large-scale emergency incidents, such as acts of terrorism, human-caused accidents, and acts of nature, often overwhelm local first-responder resources. A historical review of five recent major emergencies—the Oklahoma City bombing (1995), the crash of United Airlines Flight 232 (1989), the sarin attack in the Tokyo subway (1995), Hurricane Floyd (1999), and Hurricane Charlie (2004)—shows the need for additional research to develop decision-oriented, operations research models to improve preparation for and response to major emergencies. Local emergency managers need decision guidance regarding evacuation directives, management of near-the-scene logistics, triage on the scene and at hospitals, use of volunteers and off-duty personnel, reducing telephone traffic congestion, and integration of response with second- and third-level responders from other jurisdictions. Especially promising is the potential use of data mining and statistical inference to glean more real-time information from 911 calls that may be reporting a coordinated attack at multiple locations.