Toward Improving Flood Forecast-Response Systems

To save lives and reduce property damage, the National Weather Service (NWS) provides flood forecasts and warnings serving 3,000 flood-prone areas. A comprehensive plan for improving this large-scale service has been formulated by the NWS Office of Hydrology based on several systems-economic studies. The one described highlights: (1) the concept of a flood forecast-response system which captures interactions among hydrologic, organizational, behavioral, and economic factors; (2) the concept of performance measures which capture the interplay between the quality of forecasts and the quality of floodplain dwellers' response, and (3) the economic value of flood forecasts and the benefits to be derived by the general public from the planned improvements.