Political Kidnapping: A New Risk in International Business

The present study is based on an expanded data bank of political kidnappings which have occurred over the period commencing January 1968 and ending June 1974. Fifty-four cases have been gathered from government reports and newspaper accounts. A decision tree framework is presented which conveniently summarizes the probabilities involved and the expected payoffs. The discussion will focus on the current trend away from diplomat and towards business kidnappings, the internationalization of urban guerrilla organizations and the dreadful but predictable expansion of these activities into hostaging of entire cities under threat of nuclear devices.