Critique of: “Ranking Procedures and Subjective Probability Distributions”

Lee Smith's paper (Smith, L. H. 1967. Ranking procedures and subjective probability distributions. Management Sci.14 (4, December) B-236–B-249.) is interesting as much for the questions he raises as for the answer he proposes. Those of us who have tried to elicit subjective probability distributions in the context of corporate systems can sympathize with his position that no “objective” way has yet been proposed. It is no wonder that the procedures which he cites as precursors to his proposal are ad hoc and, shall we say, “flexible.” The main issue, however, is whether the procedure advocated in his paper overcomes the limitations of previous devices. Related questions concern: (a) the compatability of probabilistic thinking with the culture of line management; and (b) the accuracy of the elicited judgments, using the “best” of methods.