A Financial Simulation for Risk Analysis of a Proposed Subsidiary

This paper describes a model for a computer stimulation designed to analyze and forecast the financial posture of a computer leasing company as a subsidiary to a large corporation.

The simulation considers the rate of market growth, the year of the introduction of fourth generation hardware and the year that the computer manufacturers act to impede the growth of the leasing industry, as random variables. Other assumptions are input as equations or constants. Financial analyses are performed during a five year simulation period. The means and the 10% and 90% quantile range for several key financial indicators are determined and plotted.