Forecasting and Systems Approach: A Frame of Reference

Long range forecasting for social systems deals with complex feedback interactions between all sectors and elements of such systems, and thus inherently implies facing the challenge of the systems approach. The latter may be characterised as an attempt to understand the self-organizing behaviour of social systems and to grasp its potential dynamic implications. It aims at integration at least along four coordinates: horizontal (conceptual systems dimensions and different views and attitudes), vertical (planning levels), time/causality (exploratory and normative directions), and action-orientation (forecasting as the “inventive core” of planning and rational change processes). In this process of integration, forecasting finds a variety of tasks which are briefly enumerated.