Reaching for Yield and the Cross Section of Bond Returns

Reaching for yield, which we define as an investor preference for higher-yield bonds at a given rating or for higher-rated bonds at given yields, is associated with inflated valuation and thus negatively predicts risk-adjusted returns. Controlling for ratings, alphas are lower for higher-yield bonds, whereas, controlling for yields, alphas are lower for safer-looking, higher-rated bonds. Future bond returns are particularly low when current interest rates are low and demand from yield-reaching investors increases. These bonds experience more frequent downgrades and defaults, suggesting that they are riskier despite their high valuation.

This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance.

Supplemental Material: The e-companion and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4920.