Managerial Differences in Assessing Probabilities of Technical Success for R&D Projects

Based on the notion that the process of assessing probabilities of technical success for R&D projects is composed of four phases—the perception phase, the evaluation phase, the transformation phase, and the review phase—three types of variables are identified as accounting for individual differences in probability assessments: personal, organizational, and situational variables. The empirical findings about the impact of some selected variables on subjective probabilities are described and discussed for their relevance to the problem at hand. It is found that both an assessor's specific relations towards the project to be evaluated and his organizational rank may be of use in explaining individual differences in R&D probability assessments.