A Two-Stage Model for the Control of Epidemic Influenza

We developed a two-stage model to help predict the circumstances under which alternative public immunization strategies for influenza are likely to be best suited to national needs. The first stage is a deterministic epidemic model which, when solved numerically, describes the fraction of the population that becomes infective during a hypothetical epidemic. The second stage is a cost/benefit model that allows policy alternatives to be compared in economic net benefit terms. Our assumptions lead us to predict that immunization programs directed at the population at large are in some cases favored over those which target selected high-risk groups.