Expected Retaliatory Capabilities of Launch Control Networks

This paper presents a method for analyzing a launch control network in order to determine its expected retaliatory capability, that is, the expected number of operable missiles which are still electrically connected to at least one launch control center after an enemy attack has taken place. The key to the method is to look at a launch control network as a switching circuit and thus represent it by means of a Boolean matrix. Combinatorial techniques are then used to derive a symbolic representation of all possible paths by which a given launch site is connected with some launch control center. These expressions are then used to compute the individual launch probability of each missile in the network. The expected number of launchable missiles is equal to the sum of these individual launch probabilities.