Forecasting Periodic Trends by Exponential Smoothing

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.11.6.908

Some commodities are known to have periodic trends, through seasonal variations and other variations that are repetitive. In forecasting these trends it is desirable to use a set of periodic functions. A method is obtained for the computation of the required coefficients in exponential smoothing when the set of fitting functions consists of a finite number of sine and cosine functions, or such functions multiplied by exponential functions. Explicit expressions are derived for some particular cases.

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