A Mathematical Model for Strategic Movement

The mathematical model discussed in this report is meant to be applicable to the problem of planning strategic movements that are “optimum” in the sense that expected nuclear attack casualties to a given population are minimized. In the model, an “attack area” is divided into sectors. Within each sector, the vulnerability of personnel in various categories representing varying degrees of protection is specified, along with the maximum number of occupants allowed each category and the allowed movements between sectors. The principal problem discussed is that of determining a movement plan that minimizes the expected number of postattack casualties in a given attack area. A linear method for finding optimum movement plans is derived, and examples of such plans are given.