Sequencing Expansion Projects

This paper examines the problem of finding the sequencing of a finite set of expansion projects that meets a deterministic demand projection at minimum discounted cost. For the particular situation defined, the tuning for a next expansion may be determined directly from knowledge of projected demand and present capacity. A dynamic programming formulation for sequencing projects is developed, and solution of an example problem demonstrates that other methods proposed for this problem are not, in general, valid. Extensions of the dynamic programming formulation to include interdependence between projects and joint selection of project scale and sequencing are indicated, and conditions for decomposition or direct solution of the sequencing problem are derived.