Planning the 41st ORSA Meeting: The Visiting-Fireman Problem, I

A polling technique based on subjective probabilities was employed to produce advance estimates of the number of ORSA members attending the 41st National Meeting. The predicted figures compare favorably with the actual attendance figure, tending to support the credibility of such an approach. Action taken as a consequence of the poll’s forewarning is believed to have had a significant salutary effect on the financial health of the meeting.