A Natural Gas Flow Model under Uncertainty in Demand

Storage and purchasing policies that minimize expected shortages of natural gas in the service area supplied by a single natural gas utility are developed. The problem is formulated and solved using a multiperiod linear programming model. The model takes into consideration the variability of weather conditions and its effects on the demand for natural gas. Forecasts of future weather conditions are updated several times during the model planning period. Also, the optimal flows of natural gas are determined at the time that the forecasts are updated. The optimal storage quantities at the beginning of each time period and the consequences of contracting for additional storage facilities on the natural gas shortage are derived by using the model. The natural gas planning strategy is to plan natural gas flows based on forecasted future demand. The optimal flows should be recalculated for future time periods at several computational stages of the model, honoring the orders placed during previous time periods.