A Method of Computing Survival Probabilities of Several Targets Versus Several Weapons

Infantry squad weapons are evaluated against the background of a rifle squad attacking a position defended by riflemen. The behavior of Attackers and Defenders is characterized by simultaneous action within each squad. The Defenders, acting independently of one another, each choose at random an Attacker as target and all Defenders fire simultaneously. The process is repeated in a sequence of volleys. As independent variables there are the original number, T, of Attackers, the number of Defenders, the single-shot hit probability, and the number of volleys fired. After each volley there is defined a set of probabilities of the survival of 0, 1, …, T Attackers. Taken as a sequence, these sets form a Markov chain, which is the basis for weapons comparison. All results of this paper are applications of the Markov theory. This technique is most useful for squads with a maximum of 15 men, some numerical examples are included. There are suggested ways in which tactical features can be reflected in the independent variables.