Inclusion of Detection in Probability of Survival Models

The chance for survival in aerial or vehicle-to-vehicle space combat, particularly with guided missiles, would seem to depend in large measure upon the relative ability to detect. But there seems to be few published quantitative studies of how the chance of survival varies with ability to detect. Therefore, this note develops simple models for estimating survival that include the detection distributions of the combatants. Simplifying assumptions are suggested that are realistic and mathematically reasonable, and it is indicated how “answers” can be computed in a variety of cases.