The Use of Disaggregate Choice Models in Semi-Markov Process Models of Trip Chaining Behavior

Travel demand models currently used in practice generally ignore the phenomenon of trip chaining. However, there is growing evidence that the possibility of forming more efficient trip tours may be a principal mechanism by which travelers adapt their behavior when confronted with gasoline shortages or severe price increases. This paper tries to synthesize two different analysis methodologies, disaggregate choice models and semi-Markov processes, to develop an operational, policy sensitive model of non-work trip chaining. The theory of each of these methods is briefly described. A model of trip chaining is then formulated. An example of the model, implemented for Rochester, New York, is then presented, and conclusions regarding potentially fruitful extensions are drawn.