The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds
Published Online:14 Jul 2015https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2015.0315
Abstract
We investigate optimal group member configurations for producing a maximally accurate group forecast. Our approach accounts for group members that may be biased in their forecasts and/or have errors that correlate with the criterion values being forecast. We show that for large forecasting groups, the diversity of individual forecasts linearly trades off with forecaster accuracy when determining optimal group composition.
