Quantitative Analysis of Some Decision Rules for Family Planning in an Oriental Society

Family planning and population control efforts in Singapore face the difficulty that in an oriental society, many parents prefer to have at least a son and to have children of both sexes. This paper presents an analysis of some actual data to highlight this phenomenon, and considers various plausible alternatives to the “Girl or Boy, Two is Enough” decision rule promulgated by the government. With common probabilistic concepts and models, it is shown that limitation of children and parental satisfaction may not be seriously conflicting goals, as commonly believed. The results underscore the fact that, in situations where probabilistic outcomes are involved, intuitive expectations quite often are at variance with understanding brought about through analytical studies.