A Delphi Forecast for Alaska

Alaska is undergoing rapid economic change as it seeks to diversify away from its petroleum-based economy. State government is trying to influence this development through long-range planning. A major Delphi study, where a 91-member panel was used to forecast policies, trends, and events, was found to be generally suitable for forecasting in this highly dynamic context. But the generic Delphi approach had to be modified to fit the Alaska case: the panel was designed around the categories of decision makers, technical experts, and advocates; parallel interviews were conducted to obtain input from Alaska natives; and the last round was designed to produce scenarios and a limited implicit cross-impact analysis.