Development and Implementation of a Simple Short Range Forecasting Model–A Case Study

During 1975 and 1976, the OR/MS group in the Packaging Division of American Can Company developed and implemented a simple short-range forecasting model of the trend extrapolation/seasonal adjustment type. A steady growth in model usage by a variety of both technical and nontechnical clients has been experienced. In this paper, various aspects of the development and implementation of this model are described which would seem to be of general interest to the management science community, especially practitioners. A formal description of the model logic is also presented.