A System of Promotional Models

A system of promotional-effect models developed from certain behavioral assumptions about consumer buying habits is described. The same basic model structure is shown to be applicable to several types of gasoline marketing promotions and to various nongasoline promotions as well. Parameter estimation procedures and methods for calculating the effect of simultaneous promotions are discussed. The models were developed to be used with a computerized MIS for market planning and sales forecasting and are validated using actual sales data. Included are insights into the customer buying process that were revealed during the parameter estimation and updating procedures.