Free Access

Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis

Carl S. Spetzler
Carl S. Spetzler
Stanford Research Institute
Search for more papers by this author
,
Carl-Axel S. Staël Von Holstein
Carl-Axel S. Staël Von Holstein
Stanford Research Institute
Search for more papers by this author

Carl S. Spetzler

Stanford Research Institute

Search for more papers by this author

Carl-Axel S. Staël Von Holstein

Stanford Research Institute

Search for more papers by this author

Published Online:1 Nov 1975https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.22.3.340

Cited by
- References
- Developing optimization models with cognitive systems engineering
  18 June 2025 | Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 77, No. 3
- Decision-making in Defense Projects
- A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflation expectations
  Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 157
- IFRS 13: What Certainty Equivalent Might be Requested when Deriving a Fair Value Based on Risk-Adjusted Expected Cash Flows?
  12 September 2025 | Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Vol. 72, No. 3
- Quantile-Parameterized Distributions for Expert Knowledge Elicitation
  Dmytro Perepolkin,
  Erik Lindström,
  Ullrika Sahlin
  31 March 2025 | Decision Analysis, Vol. 22, No. 3
- Empirical implementation of extraction of decision-maker’s evaluation method in job candidates selection based on interpretable data mining tools
  17 May 2025 | Operational Research, Vol. 25, No. 2
- Quantify Uncertainty
  26 June 2025
- How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices
  1 January 2025 | Quantitative Economics, Vol. 16, No. 1
- References
  22 November 2024
- Weaving stories of strength: Ethically integrating Indigenous content in Teacher education and professional development programmes
  Teaching and Teacher Education, Vol. 142
- A multi-method simulation model to investigate the impact of sunflower seed segregation on silos
  Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, Vol. 132
- Probability: quantifying uncertainty
  2 February 2024
- Hybrid elicitation and quantile-parametrized likelihood
  27 October 2023 | Statistics and Computing, Vol. 34, No. 1
- Expert elicitation of the timing and uncertainty to establish a geologic sequestration well for CO 2 in the United States
  18 December 2023 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 121, No. 1
- Behavioral Decision Analysis: Past, Present and Future
  31 May 2024
- Strategy for Developing Prior and Likelihood Functions to Estimate the Reliability of Space Systems Using a Bayesian Approach
  1 June 2024
- Digitalization & Covid-19: An institutional-contingency theoretic analysis of supply chain digitalization
  International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 267
- Linking species distribution models with structured expert elicitation for predicting management effectiveness
  2 November 2023 | Conservation Science and Practice, Vol. 5, No. 12
- Subjective Probabilities and Farmers’ Decision-Making in Developing Countries
  2 October 2023
- Review of Probability Elicitation and Examination of Approaches for Large Bayesian Networks
- Case Article—Bayer New Drug Development Decision Making
  Jeffrey S. Stonebraker
  3 November 2021 | INFORMS Transactions on Education, Vol. 23, No. 3
- Exploiting Transdisciplinarity in MBSE to Enhance Stakeholder Participation and Increase System Life Cycle Coverage
  8 July 2023
- Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 304, No. 2
- Making a good career choice: A decision‐analytical intervention to enhance proactive decision‐making and career choice self‐efficacy in high school students
  19 November 2022 | Decision Sciences Journal of Innovative Education, Vol. 21, No. 1
- Estimating P (event): judgement and the use of experts
- Use of expert elicitation in the field of occupational hygiene: Comparison of expert and observed data distributions
  8 June 2022 | PLOS ONE, Vol. 17, No. 6
- Reduction of production risks by improving the method of failure mode and effect analysis
  11 August 2021 | International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Vol. 13, No. 1
- Exploiting Transdisciplinarity in MBSE to Enhance Stakeholder Participation and Increase System Life Cycle Coverage
  2 August 2022
- Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty
  Applied Energy, Vol. 306
- A novel risk analysis approach for occupational safety using Bayesian Network and interval type-2 fuzzy sets: the case of underground mining
  Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, Vol. 42, No. 1
- Eliciting Beliefs as Distributions in Online Surveys
  4 February 2021 | Political Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 4
- An elicitation process to quantify Bayesian networks for dam failure analysis
  Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 48, No. 10
- Innovations in the Science and Practice of Decision Analysis: The Role of Management Science
  James S. Dyer,
  James E. Smith
  4 August 2020 | Management Science, Vol. 67, No. 9
- Taxonomy and model for valuing the contribution of digital water meters to sustainability objectives
  Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 293
- A European eel ( Anguilla anguilla ) case study using structured elicitation to estimate instream infrastructure passability for freshwater fishes
  28 June 2021 | Conservation Science and Practice, Vol. 3, No. 9
- Measuring Beliefs Under Ambiguity
  Mohammed Abdellaoui,
  Han Bleichrodt,
  Emmanuel Kemel,
  Olivier l’Haridon
  1 July 2020 | Operations Research, Vol. 69, No. 2
- A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods
  24 February 2021 | Royal Society Open Science, Vol. 8, No. 2
- Hydrogen Storage for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Expert Elicitation and a Levelized Cost of Driving Model
  4 December 2020 | Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 55, No. 1
- Characteristics of a Process for Subjective Probability Elicitation
  20 February 2021
- Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesis
  20 February 2021
- The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective
  20 August 2020 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 40, No. S1
- Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis, Causal Analysis, and Economics: A Personal Perspective from More Than 40 years Experience
  26 November 2020 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 40, No. S1
- Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges
  Epidemics, Vol. 32
- Improved Bayesian Causal Map Approach for Community-Based Product Design Project Feasibility Analysis
  IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 67, No. 3
- Quantifying conditional probability tables in Bayesian networks: Bayesian regression for scenario-based encoding of elicited expert assessments on feral pig habitat
  3 December 2019 | Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 47, No. 10
- Waste load allocation under uncertainty using game theory approach and simulation-optimization process
  5 June 2020 | Journal of Hydroinformatics, Vol. 22, No. 4
- Bayesian Approach to the Assessment of Geological Risk in Oil and Gas Exploration
  1 July 2020 | International Journal for Innovation Education and Research, Vol. 8, No. 7
- Expert Opinion Valuation Method to Quantify Digital Water Metering Benefits
  18 May 2020 | Water, Vol. 12, No. 5
- Improving expert forecasts in reliability: Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols
  12 December 2019 | Quality and Reliability Engineering International, Vol. 36, No. 2
- Developing a Reliability Model of CNC System under Limited Sample Data Based on Multisource Information Fusion
  Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Vol. 2020
- Probability and Beyond: Including Uncertainties in Decision Analysis
  25 October 2019
- Analytical games for knowledge engineering of expert systems in support to Situational Awareness: The Reliability Game case study
  Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 138
- Beliefs and preferences for food-safety policies: a discrete choice model under uncertainty
  14 November 2018 | European Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 46, No. 5
- Seismic risk mitigation in buildings using a new method to encode a joint weighting function in multi-attribute utility theory
  27 August 2019 | SN Applied Sciences, Vol. 1, No. 9
- Expert assessments of the cost and expected future performance of proton exchange membrane fuel cells for vehicles
  25 February 2019 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, No. 11
- Understanding the planner’s role in lookahead construction planning
  6 February 2019 | Production Planning & Control, Vol. 30, No. 4
- Behavioural Analytics: Exploring judgments and choices in large data sets
  5 March 2018 | Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 70, No. 2
- A Bayesian Network Analysis for Occupational Accidents of Mining Sector
  15 August 2018
- Statistical Forecasting
- References
- Sequential Refined Partitioning for Probabilistic Dependence Assessment
  8 August 2018 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 38, No. 12
- Beyond the tradition: Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to elicit expert views on coastal susceptibility to erosion in Bangladesh
  CATENA, Vol. 170
- Quantifying the beliefs of key players in the UK sheep industry on the efficacy of two treatments for footrot
  The Veterinary Journal, Vol. 239
- A probabilistic model to estimate visual inspection error for metalcastings given different training and judgment types, environmental and human factors, and percent of defects
  Journal of Manufacturing Systems, Vol. 48
- Eliciting Uncertainties: A Two Structure Approach
  3 October 2017 | Studia Logica, Vol. 106, No. 3
- Uncertainty in long-run forecasts of quantities such as per capita gross domestic product
  14 May 2018 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 21
- An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks
  Energy Policy, Vol. 115
- Elicitation in Target-Oriented Utility
  18 November 2017
- A Methodology for Constructing Subjective Probability Distributions with Data
  18 November 2017
- Eliciting Multivariate Uncertainty from Experts: Considerations and Approaches Along the Expert Judgement Process
  18 November 2017
- Questioning the Applicability of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs in Saudi Arabia
  30 November 2017
- Towards a New Model for Causal Reasoning in Expert Systems
- Howard Raiffa: The Art, Science, and Humanity of a Legendary Negotiation Analyst
  18 October 2017 | Negotiation Journal, Vol. 33, No. 4
- Expert Elicitation1
- A formulation of the concept of probability based on the use of experimental devices
  24 May 2016 | Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Vol. 46, No. 10
- Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 258, No. 3
- A defence of subjective fiducial inference
  24 January 2017 | AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Vol. 101, No. 2
- Rational Decision Making
  15 February 2017
- Decision Analytic and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Decision Support
  17 June 2017
- Operational Risk Modelling: Focus on the Loss Distribution and Scenario-Based Approaches
  28 July 2017
- Metanetwork Framework for Integrated Performance Assessment under Uncertainty in Construction Projects
  Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, Vol. 31, No. 1
- The Metalog Distributions
  Thomas W. Keelin
  28 November 2016 | Decision Analysis, Vol. 13, No. 4
- Experts know more than just facts: eliciting functional understanding to help prioritise weed biological control targets
  1 June 2016 | Biological Invasions, Vol. 18, No. 10
- Risk marketing
  Journal of Centrum Cathedra, Vol. 9, No. 1
- Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions
  International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 18
- Translating risk assessment to contingency planning for CO2 geologic storage: A methodological framework
  International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 52
- Elicitation
  5 August 2016
- Considering power system planning in fragile and conflict states
  Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol. 32
- Expert judgements of sea-level rise at the local scale
  21 May 2015 | Journal of Risk Research, Vol. 19, No. 5
- Risk Associated with the Release of Wolbachia-Infected Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes into the Environment in an Effort to Control Dengue
  22 March 2016 | Frontiers in Public Health, Vol. 4
- Operational resilience and lean: in search of synergies and trade-offs
  Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, Vol. 27, No. 2
- Partition Dependence and Carryover Biases in Subjective Probability Assessment Surveys for Continuous Variables: Model-Based Estimation and Correction
  Venkata R. Prava,
  Robert T. Clemen,
  Benjamin F. Hobbs,
  Melissa A. Kenney
  8 December 2015 | Decision Analysis, Vol. 13, No. 1
- Bayesian Updating of the Price Elasticity of Uncertain Demand
  IEEE Systems Journal, Vol. 10, No. 1
- Decision Analytic and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Decision Support
  11 May 2016
- UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel
  SoftwareX, Vol. 5
- Infrastructure systems renewal and replacement model using probabilistic forecasting
- On a Simple and Efficient Approach to Probability Distribution Function Aggregation
  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems
- A Bird's‐Eye View of the History of Judgment and Decision Making
  18 December 2015
- Decision Technologies
  18 December 2015
- Guidance for Developing Coastal Vulnerability Metrics
  Journal of Coastal Research, Vol. 316
- Copulas Theory for Probabilistic Assessment: Overview with Application to Airplane Performance Analysis
  Journal of Aircraft, Vol. 52, No. 6
- Characterising Uncertainty in Expert Assessments: Encoding Heavily Skewed Judgements
  30 October 2015 | PLOS ONE, Vol. 10, No. 10
- Mental models of sea-level change: A mixed methods analysis on the Severn Estuary, UK
  Global Environmental Change, Vol. 33
- Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank‐Based Method
  7 April 2015 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 35, No. 7
- Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis
  15 April 2015 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 35, No. 7
- Testing Ambiguity Models through the Measurement of Probabilities for Gains and Losses
  American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, Vol. 7, No. 2
- A Synthesis of Information Imperfection Representations for Decision Aid
  16 June 2016 | INFOR: Information Systems and Operational Research, Vol. 53, No. 2
- The Resistible Rise of Bayesian Thinking in Management
  10 November 2014 | Journal of Management, Vol. 41, No. 2
- Multi-method Approaches for Uncertainty Analysis
  29 May 2015
- Elicitation of Probabilities and Probability Distributions
- Predictive modelling to aid the regional-scale management of a vertebrate pest
  12 March 2014 | Biological Invasions, Vol. 16, No. 11
- AN EXPLICIT TEST OF PLEA BARGAINING IN THE “SHADOW OF THE TRIAL”
  20 November 2014 | Criminology, Vol. 52, No. 4
- Elicitation
  29 September 2014
- Judgments under Uncertainty
  29 September 2014
- Expert Judgment
  29 September 2014
- Expert Opinion in Reliability
  29 September 2014
- Distinguishing beliefs from preferences in food choice
  3 December 2013 | European Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 41, No. 4
- Stochastic Measures of Network Resilience: Applications to Waterway Commodity Flows
  27 February 2014 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 34, No. 7
- Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy
  12 May 2014 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 20
- A Myopic Approach to Ordering Nodes for Parameter Elicitation in Bayesian Belief Networks
  IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, Vol. 26, No. 5
- Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions
  7 August 2013 | Research Synthesis Methods, Vol. 5, No. 1
- Expert judgments in the cost-effectiveness analysis of resource allocations: a case study in military planning
  23 April 2013 | OR Spectrum, Vol. 36, No. 1
- Introduction to probability and quantitative assessment
  2 September 2014
- Facing the Experts: Survey Mode and Expert Elicitation
  SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. 31
- Subjective Risks, Scientific Information, and Food Choices: A Test of Scenario Adjustment in Hypothetical Choice Experiments
  SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. 101
- Probabilistic decision model of wind power investment and influence of green power market
  Energy Policy, Vol. 63
- Product-Generation Transition Decision Making for Bayer's Hemophilia Drugs: Global Capacity Expansion Under Uncertainty with Supply-Demand Imbalances
  Jeffrey S. Stonebraker
  25 October 2013 | Operations Research, Vol. 61, No. 5
- How many bad apples are in a bunch? An experimental investigation of perceived pesticide residue risks
  Food Policy, Vol. 41
- Risk-Based Protocol for Inspection of Transportation Construction Projects Undertaken by State Departments of Transportation
  Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 139, No. 8
- Probability: Quantifying Uncertainty
  8 May 2013
- Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors
  28 May 2013 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, No. 24
- Sustainable roofing technology under multiple constraints: a decision-analytical approach
  25 May 2013 | Environment Systems and Decisions, Vol. 33, No. 2
- How Solid Is the Dutch (and the British) National Risk Assessment? Overview and Decision‐Theoretic Evaluation
  24 April 2013 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 33, No. 6
- Combining expert knowledge and local data for improved service life modeling of water supply networks
  Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 42
- Dynamic elicited priors for updating covert networks
  15 April 2013 | Network Science, Vol. 1, No. 1
- Quantify Uncertainty
  12 February 2013
- A Bayesian Approach to Improve Estimate at Completion in Earned Value Management
  1 February 2013 | Project Management Journal, Vol. 44, No. 1
- Influence Diagrams
  23 January 2016
- Decision Analysis in Practice
  23 January 2016
- State-of-the-Art Prescriptive Criteria Weight Elicitation
  Advances in Decision Sciences, Vol. 2012
- Assessment of the Productivity of Nighttime Asphalt Paving Operations
  Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 138, No. 12
- Using Expert Judgments to Explore Robust Alternatives for Forest Management under Climate Change
  7 May 2012 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 32, No. 12
- Priors: Silent or Active Partners of Bayesian Inference?
  30 October 2012
- Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 223, No. 1
- A Behavioral Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework for Managing Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployments
  1 November 2012 | Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 29, No. 11
- Structured elicitation of expert judgments for threatened species assessment: a case study on a continental scale using email
  3 July 2012 | Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 3, No. 5
- A Supply Chain Tracking Model Using Auto-ID Observations
  International Journal of Information Systems and Supply Chain Management, Vol. 5, No. 4
- Does climate change information affect stated risks of pine beetle impacts on forests? An application of the exchangeability method
  Forest Policy and Economics, Vol. 22
- Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the exchangeability method
  Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 84, No. 1
- Combining Expert Opinions in Prior Elicitation
  Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 3
- Rejoinder
  Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 3
- A comparison of simplified value function approaches for treating uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis
  Omega, Vol. 40, No. 4
- An alternative for robust estimation in Project Management
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 220, No. 2
- The impact of individual debiasing efforts on financial decision effectiveness in the supplier selection process
  International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, Vol. 42, No. 5
- Predicting the potential distribution of a riparian invasive plant: the effects of changing climate, flood regimes and land‐use patterns
  20 January 2012 | Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, No. 5
- A novel approach to probability distribution aggregation
  Information Sciences, Vol. 188
- References
  18 September 2015
- What Is Expert Knowledge, How Is Such Knowledge Gathered, and How Do We Use It to Address Questions in Landscape Ecology?
  20 September 2011
- Uncertainty and Error
  19 October 2011
- References
- Using Imperfectly Elicited Fractiles for the Estimation of Probability Distribution Parameters
  SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. 55
- Probability Elicitation in Influence Diagram Modeling by Using Interval Probability
  International Journal of Intelligence Science, Vol. 02, No. 04
- A software tool for elicitation of expert knowledge about species richness or similar counts
  Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 56
- Certainty, uncertainty, and climate change
  13 August 2011 | Climatic Change, Vol. 108, No. 4
- An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 214, No. 2
- Quantile-Parameterized Distributions
  Thomas W. Keelin,
  Bradford W. Powley,
  4 August 2011 | Decision Analysis, Vol. 8, No. 3
- The impact of biases on simulation-based risk aggregation: modeling cognitive influences on risk assessment
  13 August 2011 | Journal of Management Control, Vol. 22, No. 1
- Eliciting density ratio classes
  International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, Vol. 52, No. 6
- Does probability weighting matter in probability elicitation?
  Journal of Mathematical Psychology, Vol. 55, No. 4
- Bayesian inference of Weibull distribution based on probability encoding method
- Eliciting Subjective Probabilities from Individuals and Reducing Biases
  14 January 2011
- Empirically Investigating the Portfolio Management Process: Findings from a Large Pharmaceutical Company
  8 August 2011
- Statistical Forecasting
- Cellulosic biofuels: Expert views on prospects for advancement
  Energy, Vol. 36, No. 1
- The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure
  26 April 2010 | Environmental Health, Vol. 9, No. 1
- Debiasing the supplier selection decision: a taxonomy and conceptualization
  International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, Vol. 40, No. 10
- A fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis model for advanced technology assessment at Kennedy Space Center
  21 December 2017 | Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 61, No. 10
- Improving Planning Reliability and Project Performance Using the Reliable Commitment Model
  Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 136, No. 10
- A Use of a Mathematical Model in Updating Concept Selection
  5 October 2010 | Journal of Mechanical Design, Vol. 132, No. 10
- Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views about prospects for advancement
  Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 77, No. 7
- Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing
  28 June 2010 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, No. 28
- Assessing Joint Distributions with Isoprobability Contours
  Ali E. Abbas,
  David V. Budescu,
  Yuhong (Rola) Gu,
  23 April 2010 | Management Science, Vol. 56, No. 6
- Assessment of the Impact of Inter-Organizational Interactions on Project Metrics
  26 April 2012
- Risk assessment of new pricing strategies in the district heating market
  Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 5
- Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV IVb) risk factors and association measures derived by expert panel
  Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 94, No. 1-2
- The Maximum Resource Allocation for Uncertainty Reduction in a Decision-analytic Concept Selection
  2 February 2010 | Concurrent Engineering, Vol. 18, No. 1
- Elicitator: An expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology
  Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 25, No. 1
- Methodology for Conducting Discrete-Event Simulation Studies in Construction Engineering and Management
  Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 136, No. 1
- Assessment of expert judgments for safety analyses and performance assessment of geological repository systems
- Bayesian Reliability Analysis With Evolving, Insufficient, and Subjective Data Sets
  13 October 2009 | Journal of Mechanical Design, Vol. 131, No. 11
- Evaluating Quantile Assessments
  Victor Richmond R. Jose,
  Robert L. Winkler,
  24 April 2009 | Operations Research, Vol. 57, No. 5
- Carbon capture and storage: combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy
  23 July 2009 | Climatic Change, Vol. 96, No. 3
- Managing Construction Projects Using the Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis and Management Model
  Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 135, No. 8
- Bridging Text Mining and Bayesian Networks
- A Review of Uncertainty Methods Employed in Water Quality Modeling
- Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush‐tailed rock‐wallaby Petrogale penicillata
  9 July 2008 | Environmetrics, Vol. 20, No. 4
- Paper rating vs. paper ranking
  21 April 2009 | ACM SIGOPS Operating Systems Review, Vol. 43, No. 2
- Discrete-event simulation based performance quantification of web-based and traditional bidder inquiry processes
  Automation in Construction, Vol. 18, No. 2
- A Prescriptive Approach to Elicitation of Decision Data
  Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, Vol. 3, No. 1
- OR Practice—Modeling Potential Demand for Supply-Constrained Drugs: A New Hemophilia Drug at Bayer Biological Products
  Jeffrey S. Stonebraker,
  Donald L. Keefer,
  16 July 2008 | Operations Research, Vol. 57, No. 1
- References
  29 May 2008
- Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy
  Energy Economics, Vol. 31
- Reliability prediction through Bayesian inference based on product change
- Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models
  1 January 2009 | Ecology, Vol. 90, No. 1
- A Comparison of Two Probability Encoding Methods: Fixed Probability vs. Fixed Variable Values
  Ali E. Abbas,
  David V. Budescu,
  Hsiu-Ting Yu,
  Ryan Haggerty,
  5 November 2008 | Decision Analysis, Vol. 5, No. 4
- A Decision-Analytic System Concept Selection for a Public Project
  25 September 2008 | Journal of Mechanical Design, Vol. 130, No. 11
- Expert Judgment
  15 September 2008
- Eliciting Subjective Probabilities Through Exchangeable Events: An Advantage and a Limitation
  Aurélien Baillon,
  1 June 2008 | Decision Analysis, Vol. 5, No. 2
- Interior Additivity and Subjective Probability Assessment of Continuous Variables
  Robert T. Clemen,
  Canan Ulu,
  1 April 2008 | Management Science, Vol. 54, No. 4
- A new method for estimating human error probabilities: AHP–SLIM
  Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 93, No. 4
- Risk perception and Bayesian analysis of international construction contract risks: The case of payment delays in a developing economy
  International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 26, No. 2
- Improving and Measuring the Effectiveness of Decision Analysis: Linking Decision Analysis and Behavioral Decision Research
- Modeling Count Data in Risk Analysis and Reliability Engineering
- Languages and Designs for Probability Judgment
- Probabilistic Sales Forecasting for Small and Medium-Size Business Operations
- A Tutorial on Learning with Bayesian Networks
- Advanced Nuclear Power: Converting Expert Elicitations into Economic Parameters to Inform Climate Policy
  SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. 78
- Advanced Nuclear Power: Combining Economic Analysis with Expert Elicitations to Inform Climate Policy
  SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. 30
- Assessor Rationality Across Differing Forecast Series
  SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. 65
- Expert Opinion in Reliability
  15 March 2008
- Medicine in words and numbers: a cross-sectional survey comparing probability assessment scales
  11 June 2007 | BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol. 7, No. 1
- Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process – A framework and guidance
  Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 22, No. 11
- Eliciting Probabilities from Experts
- Aggregating Probability Distributions
- Balancing Environmental and Operational Objectives in Nuclear Refueling Strategies
- Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change
  22 March 2007 | Climatic Change, Vol. 82, No. 3-4
- Statistical Decisionmaking Without Math
  2 August 2013 | CHANCE, Vol. 20, No. 3
- Formulating informative, data-based priors for failure probability estimation in reliability analysis
  Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 92, No. 4
- Cognitive Stopping Rules for Terminating Information Search in Online Tasks1
  1 March 2007 | MIS Quarterly, Vol. 31, No. 1
- Improving requirements elicitation: an empirical investigation of procedural prompts
  12 January 2007 | Information Systems Journal, Vol. 17, No. 1
- Modeling citation behavior in Management Science journals
  Information Processing & Management, Vol. 42, No. 6
- Integrating Target Costing Into Perception-Based Concept Evaluation of Complex and Large-Scale Systems Using Simultaneously Decomposed QFD
  6 January 2006 | Journal of Mechanical Design, Vol. 128, No. 6
- Expert Judgments Regarding Risks Associated with Salmon Aquaculture Practices in British Columbia
  Journal of Risk Research, Vol. 9, No. 7
- From the Special Issue Editors… Special Issue on Psychology and Decision Analysis
  Don N. Kleinmuntz,
  George Wu,
  1 September 2006 | Decision Analysis, Vol. 3, No. 3
- Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Aerosol Forcing
  19 April 2006 | Climatic Change, Vol. 75, No. 1-2
- Modeling to support reliability enhancement during product development with applications in the U.K. Aerospace industry
  IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 53, No. 2
- Modelling and assessment of critical risks in BOT road projects
  Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 24, No. 4
- Entropy methods for joint distributions in decision analysis
  IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 53, No. 1
- Expert elicitation and Bayesian analysis of construction contract risks: an investigation
  Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 24, No. 1
- Subjective Confidence and the Sampling of Knowledge
- Elicitation
  15 August 2006
- Judgments under Uncertainty
  15 August 2006
- Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior
  Craig R. Fox,
  Robert T. Clemen,
  1 September 2005 | Management Science, Vol. 51, No. 9
- Optimal Use of Budget Reserves to Minimize Technical and Management Failure Risks During Complex Project Development
  IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 52, No. 3
- Elicited Priors for Bayesian Model Specifications in Political Science Research
  The Journal of Politics, Vol. 67, No. 3
- A Hierarchical Probabilistic Approach for Risk Assessments of an Aviation Safety Product Portfolio
  Air Traffic Control Quarterly, Vol. 13, No. 3
- Uncertainty Assessment of Voc Emissions from Paint in the Netherlands Using the Nusap System
  Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 105, No. 1-3
- Providing support for decisions based on time series information under conditions of asymmetric loss
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 163, No. 2
- Assignment of probability distributions for parameters in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. Part 1: description of process
  Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 88, No. 1
- Partition Dependence in Decision Analysis, Resource Allocation, and Consumer Choice
- An Anthology of Probabilistic Models for Medical Informatics
- References, Part 9
- Stopping Rule Use During Web-Based Search
- A causal mapping approach to constructing Bayesian networks
  Decision Support Systems, Vol. 38, No. 2
- Stopping rule use during information search in design problems
  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 95, No. 2
- Elicitation
  15 October 2004
- Judgments under Uncertainty
  15 October 2004
- Balancing Cost, Risk, and Performance Under Uncertainty in Preliminary Mission Design
  19 June 2004
- Solving black box computation problems using expert knowledge theory and methods
  Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 85, No. 1-3
- Stopping Behavior of Systems Analysts During Information Requirements Elicitation
  8 December 2014 | Journal of Management Information Systems, Vol. 21, No. 1
- A subjective assessment of alternative mission architectures for the human exploration of Mars at NASA using multicriteria decision making
  Computers & Operations Research, Vol. 31, No. 7
- Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science
  James E. Smith,
  Detlof von Winterfeldt,
  1 May 2004 | Management Science, Vol. 50, No. 5
- The Underlying Event Model for Approximating Probabilistic Dependence Among Binary Events
  IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 51, No. 2
- Predictive Assessment of Fish Health and Fish Kills in the Neuse River Estuary Using Elicited Expert Judgment
  Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, Vol. 10, No. 2
- Judgment, Decision Making, and Public Policy
  14 January 2008
- Overconfidence in Interval Estimates.
  1 January 2004 | Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, Vol. 30, No. 2
- Modelling haemophilia epidemiology and treatment modalities to estimate the unconstrained factor VIII demand
  6 January 2004 | Haemophilia, Vol. 10, No. 1
- Simple Bayesian Inference for Qualitative Political Research
  4 January 2017 | Political Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 4
- Assigning Subjective Probabilities to Event Trees: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior
  SSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. 110
- Bayesian Analysis of Launch Vehicle Success Rates
  Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1
- Uncertain Risk: The Role and Limits of Quantitative Assessment
- CROSS: A Multicriteria Group-Decision-Making Model for Evaluating and Prioritizing Advanced-Technology Projects at NASA
  Madjid Tavana,
  1 June 2003 | Interfaces, Vol. 33, No. 3
- Programmatic Risk Analysis for Critical Engineering Systems Under Tight Resource Constraints
  Robin L. Dillon,
  M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell,
  Seth D. Guikema,
  1 June 2003 | Operations Research, Vol. 51, No. 3
- Evaluation of a verbal–numerical probability scale
  International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, Vol. 33, No. 2
- Required characteristics of statistical distribution models for life cycle cost estimation
  International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 83, No. 2
- Genetic search over probability spaces
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 144, No. 2
- A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities
  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 90, No. 1
- COMPROMISE-BASED APPROACH TO ROAD PROJECT SELECTION IN MADRID METROPOLITAN AREA
  Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, Vol. 46, No. 1
- Decision Analysis in Entrepreneurship: how a New Venture Creation can Benefit from it
  18 April 2012 | Journal of Decision Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3-4
- How Bayer Makes Decisions to Develop New Drugs
  Jeffrey S. Stonebraker,
  1 December 2002 | Interfaces, Vol. 32, No. 6
- Improving Stochastic Evaluations Using Objective Data Analysis and Expert Interviewing Techniques
  29 September 2002
- Improving information requirements determination: a cognitive perspective
  Information & Management, Vol. 39, No. 8
- A survival model of the effects of bottom-water hypoxia on the population density of an estuarine clam ( Macoma balthica )
  Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Vol. 59, No. 8
- Heuristics and Biases
  5 June 2012 | , Vol. 13
- Exploring the Structure of Regional Climate Scenarios by Combining Synoptic and Dynamic Guidance and GCM Output
  Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, No. 9
- Euclid: Strategic alternative assessment matrix
  9 April 2003 | Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Vol. 11, No. 2
- A method for evaluating elicitation schemes for probabilistic models
  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part B (Cybernetics), Vol. 32, No. 1
- New York Power Authority Uses Decision Analysis to Schedule Refueling of Its Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant
  Dennis J. Dunning,
  Steve Lockfort,
  Quentin E. Ross,
  Phillip C. Beccue,
  Jeffrey S. Stonebraker,
  1 October 2001 | Interfaces, Vol. 31, No. 5
- Use of expert judgment in exposure assessment. Part I. Characterization of personal exposure to benzene
  18 September 2001 | Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology, Vol. 11, No. 4
- Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems
  Climatic Change, Vol. 49, No. 3
- The controlling influences on effective risk identification and assessment for construction design management
  International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 19, No. 3
- Generating Scenario Trees for Multistage Decision Problems
  Kjetil Høyland,
  Stein W. Wallace,
  1 February 2001 | Management Science, Vol. 47, No. 2
- A Bayesian network approach to making inferences in causal maps
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 128, No. 3
- Improving Judgment in Forecasting
- A Social Decision Analysis of the Earthquake Safety Problem: The Case of Existing Los Angeles Buildings
- Elicitation of Probabilities and Probability Distributions
- A decision-analytic stopping rule for validation of commercial software systems
  IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 26, No. 9
- Network engineering for agile belief network models
  IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, Vol. 12, No. 4
- Decision Theoretical Approach to Pilot Simulation
  Journal of Aircraft, Vol. 36, No. 4
- On the Relevance of Behavioral Decision Research for Decision Analysis
- The effectiveness of working group risk identification and assessment techniques
  International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 16, No. 6
- Multiple lot-sizing, and value of probabilistic information, in production to order of an uncertain size
  International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 56-57
- Modeling pilot decision making by an influence diagram
  22 August 1998
- The Effect of Risk and Autonomy on Independent Hog Producers' Contracting Decisions
  28 April 2015 | Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Vol. 30, No. 1
- Differences in Subjective Risk Thresholds: Worker Groups as an Example
  Anil Gaba,
  W. Kip Viscusi,
  1 June 1998 | Management Science, Vol. 44, No. 6
- A Tutorial on Learning with Bayesian Networks
- Avaliação bayesiana de inspetores no controle estatístico de atributos
  Gestão & Produção, Vol. 4, No. 3
- Discussion: Knowledge Acquisition and Engineering for Steel Bridge Fabrication
  Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, Vol. 11, No. 4
- Subjective estimation of the delay time distribution in maintenance modelling
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 99, No. 3
- Event Tree Analysis of Lock Closure Risks
  Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 123, No. 3
- Bayesian Networks for Data Mining
  Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, Vol. 1, No. 1
- Probabilistic and Bayesian Representations of Uncertainty in Information Systems: A Pragmatic Introduction
- Assessing Temporally Variable User Properties With Dynamic Bayesian Networks
- The estimation of failure rates for low probability events
  Progress in Nuclear Energy, Vol. 31, No. 4
- Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment
  Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 54, No. 2-3
- Acquisition, Representation, and Validation of Subjective Knowledge
  Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol. 11, No. 4
- Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities
  Test, Vol. 5, No. 1
- The influence of portfolio characteristics and investment period on investment choice
  Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 17, No. 3
- A simple and logical alternative for making PERT time estimates
  IIE Transactions, Vol. 28, No. 3
- Risk of extreme events via multiobjective decision trees: application to telecommunications
  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans, Vol. 26, No. 2
- Taming chance: Risk and the quantification of uncertainty
  Policy Sciences, Vol. 29, No. 1
- Constructing efficient belief network structures with expert provided information
  IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, Vol. 8, No. 1
- Risk assessment: where are we, and where are we going?
  19 December 1995 | Geological Society, London, Engineering Geology Special Publications, Vol. 11, No. 1
- Judging the probability that the next point in an observed time‐series will be below, or above, a given value
  6 November 2006 | Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, No. 7
- Decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling
  Energy, Vol. 20, No. 9
- A proposal on improved procedures for estimating task-time distributions in PERT
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 85, No. 1
- Decomposition in the assessment of judgmental probability forecasts
  Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 49, No. 1
- The use of probability elicitation in the high-level nuclear waste regulation program
  International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, No. 1
- Using Extraneous Information to Estimate Time Series Models. A Review of Approaches Applied in Market Response Modeling
- Reliability and Coherence of Causal, Diagnostic, and Joint Subjective Probabilities
  7 June 2007 | Decision Sciences, Vol. 25, No. 5-6
- Managing the judgmental probability elicitation process: a case study of analyst/manager interaction
  IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 41, No. 4
- KWALITEIT VAN OORDEEL EN DIE VERWAGTINGS VAN LANDBOU- ONDERNEMERS BY BESLUITNEMING / Quality of judgement and the expectations of agricultural entrepreneurs in decision making
  9 June 2010 | Agrekon, Vol. 32, No. 4
- A blueprint of ELI: A new method for eliciting subjective probability distributions
  Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, & Computers, Vol. 25, No. 4
- Elicitation of subjective probabilities for economic risk analysis: An investigation
  Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 11, No. 5
- Der Einsatz der Sensitivitätsanalyse im Rahmen des Entscheidungsbaumverfahrens
- The Development and Evaluation of ELI, an Interactive Elicitation Technique for Subjective Probability Distributions
- Literaturverzeichnis
- Toward an art and science of knowledge engineering: a case for belief networks
  IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, Vol. 5, No. 4
- A Comparison of Subjective and Historical Crop Yield Probability Distributions
  28 April 2015 | Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Vol. 24, No. 2
- Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity
  Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 5, No. 4
- Acquisition of Expert Judgment: Examples from Risk Assessment
  Journal of Energy Engineering, Vol. 118, No. 2
- Analytical approach for economic risk quantification of large engineering projects
  Construction Management and Economics, Vol. 10, No. 4
- Choice of utility function form: its effect on classification of risk preferences and the prediction of farmer decisions
  1 April 1992 | Agricultural Economics, Vol. 6, No. 4
- A perspective on structured expert judgment
  Journal of Hazardous Materials, Vol. 29, No. 3
- Assessment of probability distributions for continuous random variables: A comparison of the bisection and fixed value methods
  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 51, No. 1
- From certainty factors to belief networks
  Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, Vol. 4, No. 1
- Alternative functional relationships between ELF field exposure and possible health effects: Report on an expert workshop
  19 October 2005 | Bioelectromagnetics, Vol. 13, No. 5
- Risk Evaluation of Investment in Advanced Manufacturing Technology
- A review of expert judgment techniques with reference to nuclear safety
  Progress in Nuclear Energy, Vol. 27, No. 2-3
- Expert judgment in maintenance optimization
  IEEE Transactions on Reliability, Vol. 41, No. 3
- Mathematical models in weed management
  Crop Protection, Vol. 10, No. 6
- Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues
  Acta Psychologica, Vol. 77, No. 3
- Research Policy and Review 34: The Development of Ideas of Uncertainty Representation
  1 June 1991 | Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, Vol. 23, No. 6
- Use of expert judgment in NUREG-1150
  Nuclear Engineering and Design, Vol. 126, No. 3
- Ambiguity aversion in the small and in the large for weighted linear utility
  Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 4, No. 2
- Belief, knowledge, and uncertainty: A cognitive perspective on subjective probability
  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 48, No. 2
- Evaluation of system reliability using expert opinions
  Structural Safety, Vol. 9, No. 3
- Guided expert self-elicitation: generalizing captured expertise
- An Experimental Study of the Effectiveness of Three Debiasing Techniques*
  7 June 2007 | Decision Sciences, Vol. 22, No. 1
- The Concept of Probability in Safety Assessments of Technological Systems
  Science, Vol. 250, No. 4986
- Application of artificial intelligence techniques to a well defined clinical problem: jaundice diagnosis
  International Journal of Bio-Medical Computing, Vol. 26, No. 3
- Assessment Uncertainty Technology for Making and Defending Risky Decisions
  25 May 2011 | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 3
- The expected value of frequency calibration
  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 46, No. 1
- Bayesian estimation of undiscovered pool sizes using the discovery record
  Mathematical Geology, Vol. 22, No. 3
- Uncertainty management in expert systems
  IEEE Expert, Vol. 5, No. 2
- The statistics of state-spaces
  Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 2, No. 1-4
- Decision analysis as a tool for integrating simulation with expert systems when risk and uncertainty are important
  Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, Vol. 4, No. 4
- QUANTIFYING AND MANAGING RISK IN AGRICULTURE
  Agrekon, Vol. 29, No. 1
- Decision analysis techniques for knowledge acquisition: combining information and preferences using Aquinas and Axotl
  International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, Vol. 32, No. 2
- Decision Analysis in Environmental Risk Management: Applications to Acid Deposition and Air Toxics
- Environmental and technological risks and hazards
  Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 30, No. 5
- Generating Explanations of Decision Models Based on an Augmented Representation of Uncertainty
- The probability wheel is guaranteed to work
- AIDS and subjective risk assessment: A critical review
  Health Policy, Vol. 13, No. 3
- Eliciting and Combining Subjective Judgments About Uncertainty
  10 March 2009 | International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, Vol. 5, No. 4
- Combination of prejudiced subjective probabilities
  Journal of Mathematical Psychology, Vol. 33, No. 3
- Evaluation of Subsurface Exploration Programs
  Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 115, No. 3
- On the uses of expert judgment on complex technical problems
  IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 36, No. 2
- Subjective Estimation of Toluene Exposures: A Calibration Study of Industrial Hygienists
  Applied Industrial Hygiene, Vol. 4, No. 3
- The nature and use of uncertainty in property valuation expert systems
  Journal of Valuation, Vol. 7, No. 3
- New project management principles for the conception stage: outline of a new ‘generation’
  International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 7, No. 1
- Models of human behaviour and confidence in judgement: A review
  International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No. 2
- Mars: A multiattribute utility ranking support for risk situations with a “P,Q,I,R” relational system of preferences
  Mathematical and Computer Modelling, Vol. 12, No. 10-11
- Comment: Whose opinion are we eliciting: the expert's or the Analyst's?
  Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 26, No. 2
- MARS: A MULTIATTRIBUTE UTILITY RANKING SUPPORT FOR RISK SITUATIONS WITH A “P, Q, I, R” RELATIONAL SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES
- Eliciting knowledge for analytical representation
  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 19, No. 3
- Representing and eliciting knowledge about uncertain evidence and its implications
  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 19, No. 3
- The Importance of Including Uncertainties in Economic Generation Reliability Planning
  1 December 1988 | The Energy Journal, Vol. 9, No. 2_suppl
- A Minimum Cost Sequential Test to Monitor Injury Incidence on an Operation
  IIE Transactions, Vol. 20, No. 3
- Empirical comparison of subjective probability elicitation methods*
  20 April 2010 | Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 5, No. 1
- Comparaison empirique des méthodes d'inférence de probabilités subjectives*
  20 April 2010 | Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 5, No. 1
- Analysis of Uncertainty and Reaching Broad Conclusions
  1 September 1988 | Journal of the American College of Toxicology, Vol. 7, No. 5
- The Role of Human Factors in Expert Systems Design and Acceptance
  1 August 1988 | Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, Vol. 30, No. 4
- Decision theory in expert systems and artificial intelligence
  International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, Vol. 2, No. 3
- Analyzing the accuracy of probability judgments for multiple events: An extension of the covariance decomposition
  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 41, No. 3
- Dealing with Uncertainty: Statistics for an Aging Population
  The American Statistician, Vol. 42, No. 2
- Risk analysis approach to transport aircraft technology assessment
  Journal of Aircraft, Vol. 25, No. 2
- A new method of scenario analysis for strategic planning
  21 September 2006 | Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 7, No. 1
- Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Safety Assessment
- A critique of current practice for the use of expert opinions in probabilistic risk assessment
  Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 20, No. 1
- Probabilities are useful to quantify expert judgments
  Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 23, No. 4
- A critique of recent models for human error rate assessment
  Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 22, No. 1-4
- The assessment of the expected value of information in the binary decision model
  9 November 2006 | Managerial and Decision Economics, Vol. 8, No. 4
- Geologic Prediction Model for Tunneling
  Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 113, No. 4
- Expert opinion use for probability assessment in safety studies: Main topics and elements of an application-oriented research program
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 32, No. 2
- Incorporating risk into selection utility: Two models for sensitivity analysis and risk simulation
  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 40, No. 2
- Cognitive biases and corrective techniques: proposals for improving elicitation procedures for knowledge-based systems
  International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, Vol. 27, No. 2
- Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods
  29 May 2006 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 2
- A Multiattribute Utility Analysis of Alternative Sites for the Disposal of Nuclear Waste
  29 May 2006 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 2
- The Inexact Science of Chemical Hazard Risk Assessment: A Description and Critical Evaluation of Available Methods
- An experimental study of managers’ and researchers’ use of consumer market research
  Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Vol. 14, No. 3
- Human judgment biases and the teaching of management accounting
  Journal of Accounting Education, Vol. 3, No. 1
- On the use of judgment in probabilistic risk analysis
  Nuclear Engineering and Design, Vol. 93, No. 2-3
- A critique of the normative and descriptive foundations of subjective probability—with reference to agriculture
  Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 6, No. 4
- Parallel and sequential computation: a statistician's view
  Journal of Complexity, Vol. 1, No. 2
- A Computer Aid for Risk and Other Policy Analysis
  29 May 2006 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 5, No. 3
- Bayesian inference research in auditing: Some methodological suggestions*
  20 April 2010 | Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 2, No. 1
- Identification and Estimation of Risk: Issues and Illustrations from North Sea and Arctic Engineering Projects
  IFAC Proceedings Volumes, Vol. 18, No. 5
- Languages and Designs for Probability Judgment*
  11 February 2010 | Cognitive Science, Vol. 9, No. 3
- Expert judgment and climate forecasting: A methodological critique of ?climate change to the year 2000?
  Climatic Change, Vol. 7, No. 2
- Subjective probability assessment of a Markov process using a decision analysis expert
  15 May 2007 | International Journal of Systems Science, Vol. 16, No. 2
- Acid Deposition: A Decision Framework that Includes Uncertainty
- Risk Assessment and Acid Rain Policy: A Decision Framework that includes Uncertainty
- Multicriteria Methodology for Efficient Evaluation and Ranking of R&D Project Proposals
- Large-Scale Risk As a Problem Of Technological, Psychological and Political Judgment
- Venture Analysis with a Microcomputer
- Man-machine interface issues in the construction and use of an expert system
  International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, Vol. 22, No. 1
- Ethics, Decision Analysis, and Public Risk
  29 May 2006 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 4, No. 2
- Conditional Versus Joint Probability Assessments
  25 May 2016 | INFOR: Information Systems and Operational Research, Vol. 22, No. 2
- A Probabilistic Analysis of the Passive–Restraint Question
  30 May 2006 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 4, No. 1
- Bayesian Kriging in Geotechnical Problems
- A Social Decision Analysis of the Earthquake Safety Problem: The Case of Existing Los Angeles Buildings
  30 May 2006 | Risk Analysis, Vol. 3, No. 1
- A comparison of encoding techniques
  Omega, Vol. 11, No. 1
- Slash fire hazard analysis on the Siskiyou National Forest
  Environmental Management, Vol. 6, No. 6
- FUNDAMENTAL ASPECTS OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN AGRICULTURE
  28 May 2010 | Agrekon, Vol. 21, No. sup1
- Structuring decision problems and the ‘bias heuristic’
  Acta Psychologica, Vol. 50, No. 3
- Behavioral Aspects of Information Processing for the Design of Management Information Systems
  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 12, No. 4
- Rejoinder
  Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 77, No. 378
- AN INVESTIGATION OF MOTIVATIONAL BIAS IN SUBJECTIVE PREDICTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS*
  7 June 2007 | Decision Sciences, Vol. 13, No. 2
- Pathology and Probabilities
  New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 306, No. 5
- Synthesis or selection of forecasting models
  European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 9, No. 2
- Control and utility
  Omega, Vol. 10, No. 3
- Auditors' prior probability distributions for account balances
  Accounting, Organizations and Society, Vol. 7, No. 1
- Comparison of the Lens and subjective probability paradigms for financial research purposes
  Accounting, Organizations and Society, Vol. 7, No. 1
- A probabilistic approach to the assessment of uranium resources
  Journal of the International Association for Mathematical Geology, Vol. 13, No. 6
- Flexible Investitions- und Finanzplanung bei unvollkommen bekannten Übergangswahrscheinlichkeiten
  OR Spektrum, Vol. 2, No. 4
- Changes in Delinquency Prevalence
  1 December 1981 | Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 8, No. 4
- AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE WILLINGNESS OF MANAGERS TO USE UTILITY THEORY
  Journal of Management Studies, Vol. 18, No. 4
- Behavioral and Organizational Considerations in the Design of Information Systems and Processes for Planning and Decision Support
  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 11, No. 9
- A conjugate directions method for subjective assessment of normal distributions
  Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Vol. 33, No. 1
- Assessing uncertain ventures using experts' judgments in the form of subjective probabilities
  Omega, Vol. 9, No. 2
- REFERENCES
- Statistics as Psychometrics
  1 January 2025 | Psychometrika, Vol. 45, No. 4
- Interactive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model
  Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 75, No. 372
- Methodologies for Risk and Hazard Assessment: A Survey and Status Report
  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 10, No. 8
- ASSESSING THE EXTREMES OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS BY THE FRACTILE METHOD*
  7 June 2007 | Decision Sciences, Vol. 11, No. 3
- A model to support the assessment of subjective probabilities
  Theory and Decision, Vol. 12, No. 2
- Turning uncertainty to advantage
  Long Range Planning, Vol. 13, No. 3
- Improving predictive distributions
  Trabajos de Estadistica Y de Investigacion Operativa, Vol. 31, No. 1
- Local and regional coherence utility assessment procedures
  Trabajos de Estadistica Y de Investigacion Operativa, Vol. 31, No. 1
- Fuzzy Concepts in the Analysis of Public Health Risks
- FORECASTING AND THE ASSESSMENT OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
- REFERENCES
- On Information Structuring in Choice Making: A Case Study of Systems Engineering Decisionmaking in Beef Cattle Production
  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 9, No. 9
- Strategic planning in an age of uncertainty
  Long Range Planning, Vol. 12, No. 4
- Estimation of subjective probability distributions in forecasting and decision making
  Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 14, No. 3
- Multi-parametric sensitivity in decision making under uncertainty
  Computers and Biomedical Research, Vol. 12, No. 2
- The dangerous quest for certainty in market forecasting
  Long Range Planning, Vol. 12, No. 2
- Power System Long-Range Decision Analysis Under Fuzzy Environment
  IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-98, No. 2
- An exercise in probability encoding
  Omega, Vol. 7, No. 4
- APPLICATIONS OF SIMULATION
- Subjective detection of differences in variance from small samples
  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, Vol. 22, No. 2
- An Assessment of Probability Encoding Using a Probabilistic, Noninteractive Management Game.
  Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 21, No. 3
- Analisis bayesiano de un proceso binomial
  Trabajos de Estadistica Y de Investigacion Operativa, Vol. 29, No. 2
- Eliciting subjective probability distributions on continuous variables
  Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, Vol. 21, No. 3
- Applying Multiobjective Decision Analysis to Resource Allocation Planning Problems
- ELICITATION OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES IN THE CONTEXT OF DECISION‐MAKING *
  7 June 2007 | Decision Sciences, Vol. 9, No. 1
- A Probabilistic, Noninteractive Management Game for Probability Encoding Studies
  1 December 1977 | Simulation & Games, Vol. 8, No. 4
- Bayesian Analysis for the Evaluation of Marketing Research Expenditures: A Reassessment
  1 November 1977 | Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 14, No. 4
- THE ANALYSIS OF RISKY FARM MANAGEMENT DECISIONS: ADVISING FARMERS ABOUT THE USE OF PESTICIDES*
  5 November 2008 | Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 28, No. 3
- A decision aiding system for improving the environmental standard setting process
  IFAC Proceedings Volumes, Vol. 10, No. 3
- The Technology Utility Assessment
  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 7, No. 5
- Methods for Aggregating Opinions
- On the Application of Systems Methodology to Economic and Organizational Management of Integrated Industrial Complexes
  IFAC Proceedings Volumes, Vol. 10, No. 9
- A methodology for analyzing emission control strategies
  Computers & Operations Research, Vol. 3, No. 2-3

Volume 22, Issue 3

November 1975

Pages 261-389

Article Information

Metrics

Information

Published Online:November 01, 1975

Cite as

Carl S. Spetzler, Carl-Axel S. Staël Von Holstein, (1975) Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis. Management Science 22(3):340-358.

https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.22.3.340

PDF download

Available Issues

Available Issues

Available Issues

Available Issues

Available Issues

Available Issues

Available Issues

Available Issues

Available Issues

Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis

Volume 22, Issue 3

Article Information

Metrics

Information

Cite as

Sign Up for INFORMS Publications Updates and News