Constructing a Complex Judgmental Model: An Index of Trauma Severity

The modeling of many complex phenomena necessarily relies on numerous interrelated judgments. This paper illustrates an application of the concepts of multiattribute utility assessment, based on the professional judgments of one physician, to scale the trauma severity of injuries to individuals. Special attention is given to problems not usually present or reported in applications of the assessment techniques. These include nonmonotonic functions, strong dependencies among different measures, and the state dependence of trauma severity on age and existing diseases of the individual. The manner in which these complexities were addressed is indicated.