A Model of the ABM-vs.-RV Engagement with Imperfect RV Discrimination

This paper formulates an expected-value model of the ABM-vs.-RV engagement in which the defense is credited with an imperfect RV-discrimination capability expressed in terms of the Type I and Type II errors familiar in statistics. Since it is further assumed that the defense is conducted optimally within the limits of its resources and RV-discrimination capability, the results obtained from this model tend to be offense-conservative. Calculations made with this model support the final conclusion that the acquisition of even a modest RV-discrimination capability can result in considerable payoffs to the defender in terms of RV-leakage reduction.