A Mathematical Model for Predicting the Duration of Potential Conflict Situations at Intersecting Air Routes

A mathematical model is developed for predicting the expected duration of potential conflict situations at the intersection of air routes in the en route environment. Given the intersection angle of two routes and the average flows and speeds of aircraft, the model provides an estimate of the average duration of a potential conflict and the total time the aircraft would spend in potential conflict if no preventive action were taken by controllers or pilots. The model can be used in planning air route network geometry, as well as in providing guidelines to the establishment of suitable levels of traffic flow along various routes.