Transmission Interaction Persistence (TIP): A Supply Chain and Epidemiological Model for Zoonotic Virus Outbreaks

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2024.1318

References

  • Abdelwhab E, Selim A, Arafa A, Galal S, Kilany W, Hassan M, Aly M, et al. (2010) Circulation of avian influenza H5N1 in live bird markets in Egypt. Avian Dis. 54(2):911–914.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Allen LJ (2017) A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis. Infectious Disease Modeling 2(2):128–142.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Altizer S, Bartel R, Han BA (2011) Animal migration and infectious disease risk. Science (1979) 331(6015):296–302.Google Scholar
  • Babich V, Tang CS (2012) Managing opportunistic supplier product adulteration: Deferred payments, inspection, and combined mechanisms. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 14(2):301–314.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Bahl J, Krauss S, Kühnert D, Fourment M, Raven G, Pryor SP, Niles LJ, et al. (2013) Influenza a virus migration and persistence in North American wild birds. PLoS Pathogens 9(8):e1003570.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bai M, Cui Y, Kong G, Zhang AZ (2021) No panic in pandemic: The impact of individual choice on public health policy and vaccine priority. Research Paper No. 21-02, University of Connecticut School of Business, Storrs.Google Scholar
  • Beckley R, Weatherspoon C, Alexander M, Chandler M, Johnson A, Bhatt GS (2013) Modeling epidemics with differential equations. Internal report, Tennessee State University, Nashville.Google Scholar
  • Birge JR, Candogan O, Feng Y (2022) Controlling epidemic spread: Reducing economic losses with targeted closures. Management Sci. 68(5):3175–3195.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Bouma A, Claassen I, Natih K, Klinkenberg D, Donnelly CA, Koch G, Van Boven M (2009) Estimation of transmission parameters of H5N1 avian influenza virus in chickens. PLoS Pathogens 5(1):e1000281.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Breban R, Drake JM, Stallknecht DE, Rohani P (2009) The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics. PLoS Computational Biology 5(4):e1000346.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Cai S, Cai Y, Mao X (2019) A stochastic differential equation sis epidemic model with two correlated Brownian motions. Nonlinear Dynamics 97:2175–2187.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chen N, Hu M, Zhang C (2020) Capacitated sir model with an application to COVID-19 testing. Preprint, submitted September 22, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3692751.Google Scholar
  • China Statistical Yearbook (2020) China statistical yearbook.Google Scholar
  • CIMS (2022) China influenza surveillance map. Accessed February 15, 2024, http://map.flu.org.cn/.Google Scholar
  • Cowling BJ, Jin L, Lau EH, Liao Q, Wu P, Jiang H, Tsang TK, et al. (2013) Comparative epidemiology of human infections with avian influenza a H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in china: A population-based study of laboratory-confirmed cases. Lancet 382(9887):129–137.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Cox LA Jr, Popken DA, Carnevale R (2007) Quantifying human health risks from animal antimicrobials. Interfaces (Providence) 37(1):22–38.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Cutler SJ, Fooks AR, Van Der Poel WH (2010) Public health threat of new, reemerging, and neglected zoonoses in the industrialized world. Emerging Infectious Diseases 16(1):1–7.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Das Gupta S, Barua B, Fournié G, Hoque MA, Henning J (2022) Village and farm-level risk factors for avian influenza infection on backyard chicken farms in Bangladesh. Sci. Rep. 12(1):13009.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Daya T, Taylor M (2021) Improving wet market regulation to control the spread of disease. Asian-Pacific Law Policy J. 22(2):23–97. Google Scholar
  • Dhingra V, Krishnan H (2021) Managing reputation risk in supply chains: The role of risk sharing under limited liability. Management Sci. 67(8):4845–4862.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Dong L, Rashkova I, Shi D (2022) Food safety audits in developing economies: Decentralization vs. centralization. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 24(6):2863–2881.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Dureau J, Kalogeropoulos K, Baguelin M (2013) Capturing the time-varying drivers of an epidemic using stochastic dynamical systems. Biostatistics 14(3):541–555.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ekici A, Keskinocak P, Swann JL (2014) Modeling influenza pandemic and planning food distribution. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 16(1):11–27.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Endo A, Nishiura H (2018) The role of migration in maintaining the transmission of avian influenza in waterfowl: A multisite multispecies transmission model along east Asian-Australian flyway. Canadian J. Infectious Diseases Medical Microbiology 2018(1):3420535.Google Scholar
  • FAO (2015) Biosecurity guide for live poultry markets. Accessed February 15, 2024, https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/ab0879c3-4571-42d8-b29f-b202cf18f4bc/content.Google Scholar
  • Finkelstein SN, Smart CN, Gralla AM, d’Oliveira CR (1981) A two-stage model for the control of epidemic influenza. Management Sci. 27(7):834–846.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Guan Y, Zheng BJ, He YQ, Liu XL, Zhuang ZX, Cheung CL, Luo SW, et al. (2003) Isolation and characterization of viruses related to the SARS coronavirus from animals in southern china. Science (1979) 302(5643):276–278.Google Scholar
  • Gupta S, Starr MK, Farahani RZ, Asgari N (2022) Om forum—Pandemics/epidemics: Challenges and opportunities for operations management research. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 24(1):1–23.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Harko T, Lobo FS, Mak M (2014) Exact analytical solutions of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model and of the sir model with equal death and birth rates. Appl. Math. Comput. 236:184–194.Google Scholar
  • Harvard Law School (2021) Animal markets and zoonotic disease risk: A global analysis. Accessed February 15, 2024, https://animal.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/Animal-Markets-and-Zoonotic-Disease-Risk-high-resolution.pdf.Google Scholar
  • Hobbelen PH, Elbers AR, Werkman M, Koch G, Velkers FC, Stegeman A, Hagenaars TJ (2020) Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks. Sci. Rep. 10(1):1–14.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Huaxia (2019) China detects large quantity of novel coronavirus at Wuhan seafood market. Accessed February 15, 2024, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/27/c_138735677.htm.Google Scholar
  • Indriani R, Samaan G, Gultom A, Loth L, Irianti S, Adjid R, Dharmayanti NLPI, et al. (2010) Environmental sampling for avian influenza virus a (H5N1) in live-bird markets, Indonesia. Emerging Infectious Diseases 16(12):1889–1895.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Jin C, Levi R, Liang Q, Renegar N, Springs S, Zhou J, Zhou W (2021) Testing at the source: Analytics-enabled risk-based sampling of food supply chains in china. Management Sci. 67(5):2985–2996.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Kahn JA (1987) Inventories and the volatility of production. Amer. Econom. Rev. 77(4):667–679.Google Scholar
  • Kaplan EH (2020) OM Forum—COVID-19 scratch models to support local decisions. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 22(4):645–655.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Koh LP, Li Y, Lee JSH (2021) The value of china’s ban on wildlife trade and consumption. Nature Sustainability 4(1):2–4.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Laar A, Abdulai K, Agyen JK, Bortei BB, Abugri J, Aovare P, Jerela JY, et al. (2020) Animal markets and zoonotic diseases in Ghana. https://animal.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/Ghana-Live-with-Cover.pdf.Google Scholar
  • Larson RC (2007) Simple models of influenza progression within a heterogeneous population. Oper. Res. 55(3):399–412.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Lee S, Wong N, Leung C (2013) Exposure to avian influenza H7N9 in farms and wet markets. Lancet 381(9880):1815.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Levi R, Singhvi S, Zheng Y (2020) Economically motivated adulteration in farming supply chains. Management Sci. 66(1):209–226.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Lin B, Dietrich ML, Senior RA, Wilcove DS (2021) A better classification of wet markets is key to safeguarding human health and biodiversity. Lancet Planet. Health 5(6):e386–e394.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Liu Q, Cao L, Zhu X (2014) Major emerging and re-emerging zoonoses in china: A matter of global health and socioeconomic development for 1.3 billion. Internat. J. Infectious Diseases 25:65–72.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Liu J-w, Liu H, Lu J-y (2016) External environment monitoring on avian influenza a (H7N9) virus in Guangzhou City, 2013-2015. Chinese J. Public Health 32(10):1382–1386.Google Scholar
  • Liu T, Zhu G, Zhang B, Song T, Kang M, Lu J, Zhao Y, et al. (2017) The impact of the closure of the live poultry market in my country on the prevalence of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza. Chinese J. Tropical Medicine 12:1716–1718.Google Scholar
  • Lord J, Pugh S, Thompson SR (2024) Investigation of awareness, sanitation, and customer education practices among employees of pet and animal feed stores that sell live animals in the United States. BMC Public Health 24(1):1–11.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Malloy GS, Puglisi L, Brandeau ML, Harvey TD, Wang EA (2021) Effectiveness of interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in a large urban jail: A model-based analysis. BMJ Open 11(2):e042898.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Martcheva M (2014) Avian flu: Modeling and implications for control. J. Biological Systems 22(1):151–175.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Martcheva M (2015) An Introduction to Mathematical Epidemiology, 1st ed. (Springer Publishing Company, Princeton, NJ).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Martin G, Becker DJ, Plowright RK (2018) Environmental persistence of influenza H5N1 is driven by temperature and salinity: Insights from a Bayesian meta-analysis. Frontiers Ecology Evolution 6(SEP):1–10.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ministry of Agriculture China (2013) No H7N9 virus found in poultry farm samples. Ministry of Agriculture China.Google Scholar
  • Mounts AW, Kwong H, Izurieta HS, Ho YY, Au TK, Lee M, Bridges CB, et al. (1999) Case-control study of risk factors for avian influenza A (H5N1) disease, Hong Kong, 1997. J. Infectious Diseases 180(2):505–508.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Moyen N, Hoque MA, Mahmud R, Hasan M, Sarkar S, Biswas PK, Mehedi H, et al. (2021) Avian influenza transmission risk along live poultry trading networks in Bangladesh. Sci. Rep. 11(1):19962.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Nadzam B, Dang VA, Nhung DH, Le DV, Cuong PV, Nguyen TH, Abugri BA (2023) Animal markets and zoonotic disease in Vietnam. Accessed February 15, 2024, https://animal.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/Vietnam-Live-with-Cover.pdf.Google Scholar
  • Offeddu V, Cowling BJ, Peiris JM (2016) Interventions in live poultry markets for the control of avian influenza: A systematic review. One Health 2:55–64.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • OneHealth (2024) Towards better managed markets for healthier poultry trading in Vietnam. Accessed February 15, 2024, https://onehealthpoultry.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Markets_English_19.3.24_FINAL_compressed.pdf.Google Scholar
  • Osterholm MT (2005) Preparing for the next pandemic. New England J. Medicine 352:1839–1842.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Peiris JM, Cowling BJ, Wu JT, Feng L, Guan Y, Yu H, Leung GM (2016) Interventions to reduce zoonotic and pandemic risks from avian influenza in Asia. Lancet Infectious Diseases 16(2):252–258.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Poetri O, Bouma A, Claassen I, Koch G, Soejoedono R, Stegeman A, Van Boven M (2011) A single vaccination of commercial broilers does not reduce transmission of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Veterinary Res. 42(1):74.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rawson T (2024) The risk from H5N1 has never been greater: But making our farms bio-secure is harder than it seems. Accessed February 15, 2024, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/h5n1-bird-flu-avian-influenza-farms-agriculture-biosecure/.Google Scholar
  • Reed KD, Meece JK, Henkel JS, Shukla SK (2003) Birds, migration and emerging zoonoses: West nile virus, lyme disease, influenza a and enteropathogens. Clinical Medicine Res. 1(1):5–12.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Reid C (2021) How COVID-19 is changing the wet markets of China. Accessed February 15, 2024, https://citymonitor.ai/community/how-covid-19-is-changing-the-wet-markets-of-china.Google Scholar
  • Reynolds KA, Watt PM, Boone SA, Gerba CP (2005) Occurrence of bacteria and biochemical markers on public surfaces. Internat. J. Environment. Health Res. 15(3):225–234.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rui H, Lai G (2015) Sourcing with deferred payment and inspection under supplier product adulteration risk. Production Oper. Management 24(6):934–946.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rusin P, Orosz-Coughlin P, Gerba C (1998) Reduction of faecal coliform, coliform and heterotrophic plate count bacteria in the household kitchen and bathroom by disinfection with hypochlorite cleaners. J. Appl. Microbiology 85(5):819–828.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Shortridge KF (1999) Poultry and the influenza H5N1 outbreak in Hong Kong, 1997: Abridged chronology and virus isolation. Vaccine 17:S26–S29.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Slingenbergh J, Gilbert M, Kd B, Wint W (2004) Ecological sources of zoonotic diseases. Rev. Sci. Tech. Office Internat. Épizooties 23(2):467–484.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Stallknecht DE, Shane ACSM, Kearney AMT, Zwank PJ (1990) Persistence of avian influenza viruses in water. Avian Diseases 34(2):406–411.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Sugita K, Fujimoto Y (2005) An optimal inventory management for supply chain considering demand distortion. Proc. 3rd IEEE Internat. Conf. Industrial Inform. (IEEE, Piscataway, NJ), 425–430.Google Scholar
  • Swayne DE (2009) Avian influenza. Accessed February 15, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780813818634.Google Scholar
  • Takadate Y, Tsunekuni R, Kumagai A, Mine J, Kikutani Y, Sakuma S, Miyazawa K, Uchida Y (2023) Different infectivity and transmissibility of H5N8 and H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses isolated from chickens in Japan in the 2021/2022 season. Viruses 15(2):265.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Teytelman A, Larson RC (2012) Modeling influenza progression within a continuous-attribute heterogeneous population. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 220(1):238–250.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Virlogeux V, Li M, Tsang TK, Feng L, Fang VJ, Jiang H, Wu P, et al. (2015) Estimating the distribution of the incubation periods of human avian influenza a (H7N9) virus infections. Amer. J. Epidemiology 182(8):723–729.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wan XF, Dong L, Lan Y, Long LP, Xu C, Zou S, Li Z, et al. (2011) Indications that live poultry markets are a major source of human H5N1 influenza virus infection in China. J. Virology 85(24):13432–13438.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wang X, Wang Q, Cheng W, Yu Z, Ling F, Mao H, Chen E (2017a) Risk factors for avian influenza virus contamination of live poultry markets in Zhejiang, China during the 2015–2016 human influenza season. Sci. Rep. 7(1):1–9.Google Scholar
  • World Bank (2010) Enhancing control of highly pathogenic avian influenza in developing countries through compensation: Issues and good practice. Accessed February 15, 2024, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/14be1b34-029f-5cc5-8cad-08f28c558fec/download.Google Scholar
  • Worobey M, Levy JI, Serrano LM, Crits-Christoph A, Pekar JE, Goldstein SA, Rasmussen AL, et al. (2022) The Huanan seafood wholesale market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Science (1979):951–959.Google Scholar
  • Wu D, Zou S, Bai T, Li J, Zhao X, Yang L, Liu H, et al. (2015) Poultry farms as a source of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus reassortment and human infection. Sci. Rep. 5(1):8.Google Scholar
  • Xiang N (2016) Assessing change in avian influenza a (H7N9) virus infections during the fourth epidemic—China, September 2015–August 2016. Morbidity Mortality Weekly Rep, 1390–1394.Google Scholar
  • Yan Honglian L, Lina J, Huiyan S (2016) The detection rate of H7N9 avian influenza virus in avian external environment and its influencing factors. Chinese J. Tropical Medicine 16(9404):49–51.Google Scholar
  • Yuan J, Lau EH, Li K, Leung YH, Yang Z, Xie C, Liu Y, et al. (2015) Effect of live poultry market closure on avian influenza A(H7N9) virus activity in Guangzhou, China, 2014. Emerging Infectious Diseases 21(10):1784–1793.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Zhang W, Chen J (2020) Impact of zoonotic disease outbreaks on supply chain risks: A case study of meat markets in China. Internat. J. Environment. Res. Public Health 17:8009.Google Scholar
  • Zhang RS, Ou XH, Song KY, Yuan J, Chen TM, Xiao S, Sun BC (2012) Risk related to the transmission of H5N1 subtype avian influenza virus in the environment of poultry markets in Changsha, China. Chinese J. Epidemiology 33(8):768–773.Google Scholar
  • Zhang S, Shu Y, Wang M, Wang Y, Ck L, Uyeki TM, Yang W (2007) Urban areas of People’s Republic. Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(7):2005–2006.Google Scholar
  • Zhong S, Crang M, Zeng G (2020) Constructing freshness: The vitality of wet markets in urban China. Agriculture Human Values 37(1):175–185.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Zhong NS, Zheng BJ, Li YM, Xie P, Chan ZH, Li KH, Tan PH, et al. (2003) Epidemiology and cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Guangdong, People’s Republic of China. Lancet 362(9393):1353–1358.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Zhou L, Liao Q, Dong L, Huai Y, Bai T, Xiang N, Shu Y, et al. (2010) Risk factors for human illness with avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection in China. J. Infectious Diseases 199(12):1726–1734.Google Scholar
  • Zilberman D, Goetz R, Alberto G (2012) Health and Animal Agriculture in Developing Countries (Springer, New York).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.