Aggregating Probabilistic Forecasts from Incoherent and Abstaining Experts

References

• Alpert M., Raiffa H., Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A. A progress report on the training of probability assessors. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1982) (Cambridge University Press, New York) 294–305Crossref, Google Scholar
• Batsell R., Brenner L., Osherson D., Tsavachidis S., Vardi M. Y. Eliminating incoherence from subjective estimates of chance. Proc. 8th Internat. Conf. Principles of Knowledge Representation and Reasoning (KR 2002) (2002) Toulouse, FranceGoogle Scholar
• Bregman L. M. The relaxation method of finding a common point of convex sets and its application to the solution of problems in convex programming. U.S.S.R. Comput. Math. Math. Phy. (1967) 78(384):200–217Crossref, Google Scholar
• Brier G. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Rev. (1950) 78:1–3Crossref, Google Scholar
• Censor Y., Zenios S. A.Parallel Optimization: Theory, Algorithms, and Applications (1997) (Oxford University Press, New York) Google Scholar
• Clemen R. T., Winkler R. Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis. Risk Anal. (1999) 19:187–203Crossref, Google Scholar
• Clemen R. T. Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. Internat. J. Forecasting (1989) 5:559–583Crossref, Google Scholar
• Dalkey N. C., Helmer O. An experimental application of the delphi method to the use of experts. Management Sci. (1963) 9:458–467Link, Google Scholar
• de Finetti B.Theory of Probability (1974) 1(John Wiley and Sons, New York) Google Scholar
• Dykstra R. L. An algorithm for restricted least squares regression. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. (1983) 78(384):837–842Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gärdenfors P.Knowledge in Flux: Modeling the Dynamics of Epistemic States (1988) (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA) Google Scholar
• Genest C., Zidek J. Combining probability distributions: A critique and an annotated bibliography. Statist. Sci. (1986) 1(1):114–135Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hansson S. O.A Textbook of Belief Dynamics: Theory Change and Database Updating (1999) (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands) Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hendrix M. E., Hartley P. R., Osherson D. Real estate values and air pollution: Measured levels and subjective expectations. (2005) . Working paper, Rice University, Houston, TXGoogle Scholar
• Hogarth R. M. Decision making and change in human affairs. Methods for Aggregating Opinions (1977) (D. Reidel, Dordrecht, Holland) 231–256Google Scholar
• Homer S., Selman A. L.Computability and Complexity Theory (2001) (Springer, New York) Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kahneman D., Tversky A.Choices, Values, and Frames (2000) (Cambridge University Press, New York) Crossref, Google Scholar
• Lindley D. V., Tversky A., Brown R. V. On the reconciliation of probability assessments. J. Royal Statist. Soc. A (1979) 142(Part 2):146–180Crossref, Google Scholar
• Lorge I., Fox D., Davitz J., Brenner M. A survey of studies contrasting the quality of group performance and individual performance. Psych. Bull. (1958) 55:337–372Crossref, Google Scholar
• Morgan M. G., Henrion M.Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis (1990) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK) Crossref, Google Scholar
• Osherson D., Vardi M. Y. Aggregating disparate estimates of chance. Games Econom. Behav. (2006) 56(1):148–173Crossref, Google Scholar
• Pearl J.Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference (1988) (Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco) Google Scholar
• Predd J., Seiringer R., Lieb E. H., Osherson D., Poor V., Kulkarni S. Probabilistic coherence and proper scoring rules. (2007) . Available at: http://www.citebase.org/abstract?id=oai:arXiv.org:0710.3183Google Scholar
• Shafer G.A Mathematical Theory of Evidence (1976) (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ) Crossref, Google Scholar
• Sniezek J. A., Henry R. A. Accuracy and confidence in group judgment. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (1989) 43:1–28Crossref, Google Scholar
• Tentori K., Bonini N., Osherson D. The conjunction fallacy: A misunderstanding about conjunction? Cognitive Sci. (2004) 28(3):467–477Crossref, Google Scholar
• von Winterfeldt D., Edwards W.Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research (1986) (Cambridge University Press, New York) Google Scholar
• Weisstein E. W. Multiset. From MathWorld–A Wolfram Web Resource. (2006) . Retrieved October 10, 2007, http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Multiset.htmlGoogle Scholar
• Yates J. F.Judgment and Decision Making (1990) (Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ) Google Scholar