Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data
Published Online:1 Jun 2013https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2013.0266
References
- . Risk aversion and the value of risk to life. J. Risk Insurance (2012) 79(1):77–104Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Measuring risk perceptions—What does the excessive use of 50% mean? Medical Decision Making (2012) 32(2):232–236Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Verbal and numerical expressions of probability: “It's a fifty–fifty chance”. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (2000) 81(1):115–131Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Assessment of cognition using surveys and neuropsychological assessment: The Health and Retirement Study and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study. J. Gerontology: Ser. B (2011) 66B(S1):i162–i171Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms. Quart. J. Econom. (1961) 75(4):643–669Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Fifty–fifty = 50%? J. Behav. Decision Making (1999) 12(2):149–163Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Health and Retirement Study—Imputation of cognitive functioning measures: 1992–2010 early release. (2012) . Accessed April 1, 2012, http://hrsonline.isr.umich.edu/modules/meta/xyear/cogimp/desc/COGIMPdd.pdfGoogle Scholar
- , Wise D. Individual subjective survival curves. Analyses in the Economics of Aging (2005) (University of Chicago Press, Chicago) 377–412Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Ambiguity and the Bayesian paradigm. (2011) . Working Papers 379, Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research, Bocconi University, Milan, ItalyGoogle Scholar
- . A method for minimizing the impact of distributional assumptions in econometric models for duration data. Econometrica (1984) 52(2):271–320Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Estimating Knightian uncertainty from survival probability questions on the HRS. (2004) . Accessed April 1, 2012, http://cogecon.isr.umich.edu/publications/HPW2004.pdfGoogle Scholar
- . Evaluation of the subjective probabilities of survival in the Health and Retirement Study. J. Human Resources (1995) 30(5):268–292Crossref, Google Scholar
- . The predictive validity of subjective probabilities of survival. Econom. J. (2002) 112(482):966–985Google Scholar
- . Subjective probabilities of survival: An international comparison. (2005) . Unpublished manuscript, RAND, Santa Monica, CAGoogle Scholar
- . Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (1921) (Hart, Schaffner and Marx, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston) Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Cognition and wealth: The importance of probabilistic thinking. (2001) . Working Paper, WP 2001-007, University of Michigan Retirement Research Center, Ann Arbor, MIGoogle Scholar
- . Wall street vs. main street: A comparison of views. (2012) . Accessed April 1, 2012, http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/news/upload/Lumsdaine-paper.pdfGoogle Scholar
- . Measuring expectations. Econometrica (2004) 72(5):1329–1376Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Rounding probabilistic expectations in surveys. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. (2010) 28(2):219–231Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Documentation of cognitive functioning measures in the Health and Retirement Study. (2005) . Accessed April 1, 2012, http://hrsonline.isr.umich.edu/sitedocs/userg/dr-006.pdfGoogle Scholar
- . Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment. Reliability Engrg. System Safety (1996) 54(2–3):95–111Crossref, Google Scholar
- . Effects of risk and time preference and expected longevity on demand for medical tests. J. Risk Uncertainty (2004) 28(1):39–53Crossref, Google Scholar
- . The Foundations of Statistics (1954) (Wiley, New York) Google Scholar
- . Longevity expectations and death: Can people predict their own demise? Amer. Econom. Rev. (2001) 91(4):1126–1134Crossref, Google Scholar
- . The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality. Demography (1979) 16(3):439–454Crossref, Google Scholar
- , Wachter KW, Finch CE. Trajectories of mortality at advanced ages. Between Zeus and the Salmon (1997) (National Academy Press, Washington, DC) 17–37Google Scholar
- , Gan L, Hurd MD, McFadden D, Wise D. Discussion of “Individual subjective survival curves,”. Analyses in the Economics of Aging (2005) (University of Chicago Press, Chicago) 402–412Google Scholar

