The Composition of Optimally Wise Crowds

References

• Boyd S, Vandenberghe L (2004) Convex Optimization (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Budescu DV, Chen E (2015) Identifying expertise to extract the wisdom of crowds. Management Sci. 62(2):267–280.Link, Google Scholar
• Clemen RT (1989) Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. Internat. J. Forecasting 5(4):559–609.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Cowgill B, Zitzewitz E (2015) Corporate prediction markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X. Rev. Econom. Stud., ePub ahead of print April 2, http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv014.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Davis-Stober CP, Dana J, Budescu DV (2010) A constrained linear estimator for multiple regression. Psychometrika 75(3):521–541.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Davis-Stober CP, Budescu DV, Dana J, Broomell SB (2014) When is a crowd wise? Decision 1(2):79–101.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Dawes RM (1979) The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. Amer. Psych. 34(7):571–582.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Fischer I, Budescu DV (1995) Desirability and hindsight biases in predicting results of a multi-party election. Caverni JP, Bar-Hillel M, Barron HF, Jungermann H, eds. Contributions to Decision Research I (North Holland, Amsterdam), 185–203.Google Scholar
• Gigone D, Hastie R (1997) Proper analysis of the accuracy of group judgments. Psychol. Bull. 121(1):149–167.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Goldstein DG, McAfee RP, Suri S (2014) The wisdom of smaller, smarter crowds. Proc. 15th ACM Conf. Electronic Commerce (EC’14) (ACM, New York), 471–488.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hong L, Page SE (2004) Groups of diverse problem-solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem-solvers. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101(46):16385–16389.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Jose VRR, Grushka-Cockayne Y, Lichtendahl KC (2014) Trimmed opinion pools and the crowd’s calibration problem. Management Sci. 60(2):463–475.Link, Google Scholar
• Lamberson PJ, Page SE (2012) Optimal forecasting groups. Management Sci. 58(4):805–810.Link, Google Scholar
• Mannes AE, Soll JB, Larrick RP (2014) The wisdom of select crowds. J. Personality Soc. Psych. 107(2):276–299.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Massey C, Simmons JP, Armor DA (2011) Hope over experience: Desirability and the persistence of optimism. Psych. Sci. 22(2):274–281.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Morgan GM, Adams PJ, Keith DW (2006) Elicitation of experts’ judgments of aerosol forcing. Climate Change 75(1–2):195–214.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Simmons JP, Nelson LD, Galak J, Frederick S (2011) Intuitive biases in choice versus estimation: Implications for the wisdom of crowds. J. Consumer Res. 38(1):1–15.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Simon D, Holyoak KJ (2002) Structural dynamics of cognition: From consistency theories to constraint satisfaction. Personality Soc. Psych. Rev. 6(4):283–294.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Sinclair TM, Joutz F, Stekler HO (2010) Can the fed predict the state of the economy? Econom. Lett. 108(1):28–32.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Surowiecki J (2004) The Wisdom of Crowds (Doubleday, New York).Google Scholar
• Wallsten TS, Forsyth B, Budescu DV (1983) Stability and coherence of health experts’ upper and lower subjective probabilities about dose-response curves. Organ. Behav. Hum. Performance 31(3):277–302.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Wallsten TS, Budescu DV, Erev I, Diederich A (1997) Evaluating and combining subjective probability estimates. J. Behavioral Decision Making 10(3):243–268.Crossref, Google Scholar