Friction and Decision Rules in Portfolio Decision Analysis
Published Online:26 Feb 2021https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2020.0421
References
- (2014) Coarse decision making and overfitting. J. Econom. Theory 150(1):467–486.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Phase II failures: 2008–2010. Nature Rev. Drug Discovery 10(5):328.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas. J. Behav. Decision Making 20(4):381–403.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2020) Robust portfolio decision analysis: An application to the energy reserach and development portfolio problem. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 284(3):1107–1120.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Integrating predictive biomarkers and classifiers into oncology clinical development programs. Nature Rev. Drug Discovery 10(10):735–748.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1982) Structuring decision problems and the “bias heuristic.” Acta Psych. 50(3):201–252.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1985) On the optimality of coarse behavior rules. J. Theoret. Biol. 116(2):161–193.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1994) Reason, judgment and Bayes’s law. Philos. Sci. 61(3):351–369.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2000) Bayes and Empirical Bayes Methods for Data Analysis (Chapman and Hall/CRC, New York).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Pharmaceutical forecasting: Throwing darts? Nature Rev. Drug Discovery 12(10):737–738.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) A quantitative approach for making go/no-go decision in drug development. Drug Inform. J. 45(2):187–202.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009a) Optimal cost-effective go-no go decision in late-stage oncology drug development. Statist. Biopharmaceutical Res. 1(2):159–169.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009b) Optimal cost-effective designs of phase II proof of concept trials and associated go–no go decisions. J. Biopharmaceutical Statist. 19(3):424–436.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009) Inevitable disappointment in projects selected on the basis of forecasts. SPE J. 14(2):216–221.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015). Maximizing return on investment in phase II proof-of-concept trials. Antonijevic Z, ed. Optimization of Pharmaceutical R&D Programs and Portfolios: Design and Investment Strategy (Springer, Cham, Switzerland), 141–154.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2008) Improving and measuring the effectiveness of decision analysis: Linking decision analysis and behavioral decision research. Kugler T, Smith JC, Conolly T, Son YJ, eds. Decision Modeling and Behavior in Complex and Uncertain Environments (Springer, New York), 3–31.Google Scholar
- (1985) Limits on the precision and value of information from dependent sources. Oper. Res. 33(2):427–442.Link, Google Scholar
- (1998) Portfolio Management for New Products (Perseus Publishing, Cambridge, MA).Google Scholar
- (1992) A Behavioral Theory of the Firm , 2nd ed. (Blackwell Publishers Inc., Malden, MA).Google Scholar
- (1979) The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision-making. Amer. Psych. 34(7):571–582.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009) Optimal vs. naive diversification: How inefficient is the 1 / n portfolio strategy. Rev. Financial Stud. 22(5):1915–1953.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2003) The price of innovation: New estimates of drug development costs. J. Health Econom. 22(2):151–185.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1981) Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice. Annual Rev. Psych. 32(1):53–88.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1995) Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis (Wiley, New York).Google Scholar
- (2006) An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Lett. 27(8):861–874.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2016) Adjustable robustness for multi-attribute project portfolio selection. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 252(3):931–946.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1995) Uncertainty and imprecision: Modelling and analysis. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 46(1):70–79.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1994) Beyond expected utility: Rethinking behavioral decision research. Psych. Bull. 116(1):46–54.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Bayesian Data Analysis , 3rd ed. (CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group, Boca Raton, FL).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2008) Bounded and Rational. Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK), 3–19.Google Scholar
- (2007) Analyzing Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves with SAS (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC).Google Scholar
- (2002) Returns on research and development for 1990s new drug introductions. Pharmacoeconom. 18(Suppl. 1):21–32.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1984) Decision making and postdecision surprises. Admin. Sci. Quart. 29(1):26–42.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2014) Robust optimization for interactive multiobjective programming with imprecise information applied to R&D project portfolio selection. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 238(1):41–53.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2014) Clinical development success rates for investigational drugs. Nature Biotech. 32(1):40–51.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1999) Research and development project selection and resource allocations: A review of quantitative modeling approaches. Internat. J. Management Rev. 1(2):197–224.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1983) The origin of predictable behavior. Amer. Econom. Rev. 73(4):560–595.Google Scholar
- (1986) Uncertainty, signal-detection experiments, and modeling behavior. Langlois R, ed. Economics as a Process: Essays in the New Institutional Economics (Cambridge University Press, New York), 59–115.Google Scholar
- (1988) The necessity of imperfect decisions. J. Econom. Behav. Organ. 10(1):29–55.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1999) Bounded rationality. Annual Rev. Political Sci. 2(1):297–321.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) The influence of selection bias on effort overruns in software development projects. Inform. Software Tech. 55(9):1640–1650.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1993) Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management Sci. 39(1):17–31.Link, Google Scholar
- (1982) Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A, eds. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 414–421.Google Scholar
- (2008) Resource allocation and new product development portfolio management. Loch CH, Kavadias S, eds. Handbook of New Product Development Management (Elsevier, Amsterdam), 135–163.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2004) The value of information in portfolio decision analysis. Decision Anal. 1(3):177–189.Link, Google Scholar
- (1992) Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA).Google Scholar
- (2017) Estimation of downside risks in project portfolio selection. Production Oper. Management 26(10):1839–1853.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Current and cutting edge methods of portfolio decision analysis in pharmaceutical R&D. Salo A, Keisler J, Morton A, eds. Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation (Springer, New York), 283–331.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) Torching the haystack: Modeling fast-fail strategies in drug development. Drug Discovery Today 18(7/8):331–336.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1990) New models from old: Forecasting product adoption by hierarchical Bayes procedures. Marketing Sci. 9(1):42–53.Link, Google Scholar
- (2012) Scenario-based portfolio selection of investment projects with incomplete probability and utility information. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 217(1):162–172.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 181(3):1488–1505.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2008) Robust portfolio modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 190(3):679–695.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2014) Statistical refocusing in the design of phase II trials offers promise of increased R&D productivity. Nature Rev. Drug Discovery 13(8):638–640.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1986) The reconciliation of decision analysis. Oper. Res. 34(2):289–295.Link, Google Scholar
- (2019) Machine learning with statistical imputation for predicting drug approvals. Harvard Data Sci. Rev. 1(1), https://doi.org/10.1162/99608f92.5c5f0525.Google Scholar
- (2003) Delusions of success—How optimism undermines executives’ decisions. Harvard Bus. Rev. 81(7):56–63.Google Scholar
- (2005) Detection Theory: A User’s Guide (Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Mahwah, NJ).Google Scholar
- (1999) A Bayesian model to forecast new product performance in domestic and international markets. Marketing Sci. 18(2):115–136.Link, Google Scholar
- (1989) The Markowitz optimization enigma: Is optimal? Financial Anal. J. 45(1):31–42.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1998) Efficient Asset Management: A Practical Guide to Stock Portfolio Optimization and Asset Allocation (Harvard Business School Press, Boston).Google Scholar
- (2015) Cognitive and motivational biases in decision and risk analysis. Risk Anal. 35(7):1230–1251.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2000) Forecasting the penetration of a new product—A Bayesian approach. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 18(4):428–435.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) A Bayesian approach for incorporating economic factors in sample size design for clinical trials of individual drugs and portfolios of drugs. Statist. Medicine 26(27):4976–4988.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) Dynamically optimizing budget allocation for phase 3 drug development portfolios incorporating uncertainty in the pipeline. Antonijevic Z, ed. Optimization of Pharmaceutical Programs and Portfolios: Design and Investment Strategy (Springer, Cham, Switzerland), 181–200.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) How to improve R&D productivity: The pharmaceutical industry’s grand challenge. Nature Rev. Drug Discovery 9(3):203–214.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1988) The reliability of subjective probabilities obtained through decomposition. Management Sci. 34(2):186–199.Link, Google Scholar
- , eds (2011) Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation (Springer, New York).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1954) The Foundations of Statistics (Wiley, New York).Google Scholar
- (2008) Optimizer’s curse: Removing the effect of this bias in portfolio planning. SPE Projects Facilities Construction 3(1):1–9.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2007) Statistical Issues in Drug Development (John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1976) From substantive to procedural rationality. Latsis S, ed. Method and Appraisal in Economics (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 65–86.Google Scholar
- (1977) Behavioral decision theory. Annual Rev. Psych. 28(1):1–39.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2006) The optimizer’s curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis. Management Sci. 52(3):311–322.Link, Google Scholar
- (2016) Decision Quality: Value Creation from Better Business Decisions (Wiley, Hoboken, NJ).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1979) The Algebra of Random Variables (Wiley, New York).Google Scholar
- , Shah S, Thaxter M (2018) Unlocking R&D productivity: Measuring the return from pharmaceutical innovation 2018. Report, Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions, Deloitte, London.Google Scholar
- (2011) Empirically investigating the portfolio management process: Findings from a large pharmaceutical company. Salo A, Keisler J, Morton A, eds. Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation (Springer, New York), 131–148.Google Scholar
- (1990) A meta-analysis of applications of diffusion models. J. Marketing Res. 27(1):70–77.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) Identify projects with the greatest chance of success. BioPharmaPM Newsletter 12:12–20.Google Scholar
- (1988) Anomalies: The winner’s curse. J. Econom. Perspect. 2(1):191–202.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2014) Optimal Strategies for selecting project portfolios using uncertainty value estimates. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 233(3):772–783.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2015) Fostering breakthrough technologies – How do optimal funding decisions depend on evaluation accuracy? Tech. Forecasting Soc. Change 96(July):173–190.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1953) Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).Google Scholar
- (1989) Transaction cost economics. Schmalensee R, Willig RD, eds. Handbook of Industrial Organization, vol. I (Elsevier Science, Amsterdam), 135–182.Google Scholar
- (2013) Components of portfolio value of information. Decision Anal. 10(2):171–185.Link, Google Scholar

