Partitioning the Expected Value of Countermeasures with an Application to Terrorism

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0011

References

  • Apel R, Nagin DS (2017) Perceptual deterrence. Bernasco W, van Gelder J-L, Elffers H, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Offender Decision Making (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK), 121–140.Google Scholar
  • Becker GS (1968) Crime and punishment: An economic approach. J. Political. Econom. 76(1):169–217.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Clemen RT, Reilly T (2013) Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools, 3rd ed. (Cengage Learning, New York).Google Scholar
  • Cui J, Rosoff H, John RS (2017a) Deterrence of cyber attackers in a three-player behavioral game. Internat. Conf. Decision Game Theory Security (Springer International Publishing), 418–436.Google Scholar
  • Cui J, Nguyen T, Pita J, John RS (2017b) Methods for addressing the unpredictable real-world element in security. Abbas A, Tambe M, von Winterfeldt D, eds. Improving Homeland Security Decisions (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Davis PK, Jenkins BM (2002) Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda (Rand Corporation Publishing, Santa Monica, CA).Google Scholar
  • Department of Homeland Security (2011) Risk Management Fundamentals: Homeland Security Risk Management Doctrine (National Protection and Programs Directorate, Washington, DC).Google Scholar
  • Dillon RL, Burns WJ, John RS (2018) Insights for critical alarm-based warning systems from a risk analysis of commercial aviation passenger screening. Decision Anal. 15(3):154–173.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Ezell BC, Bennett SP, von Winterfeldt D, Sokolowski J, Collins AJ (2010) Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk. Risk Anal. 30(4):575–589.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Farrow S, von Winterfeldt D (2020) Retrospective benefit–cost analysis of security-enhancing and cost-saving technologies. J. Benefit Cost Anal. 11(3):479–500.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Garcia RJ, von Winterfeldt D (2016) Defender–attacker decision tree analysis to combat terrorism. Risk Anal. 36(12):2258–2271.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Giesecke JA, Burns WJ, Barrett A, Bayrak E, Rose A, Slovic P, Suher M (2012) Assessment of the regional economic impacts of catastrophic events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of a RDD attack scenario. Risk Analysis 32(4):583–600.Google Scholar
  • Johnson ER, Tani SN (2013) Perform probabilistic analysis and identify insights. Parnell G, Bresnick T, Tani S, Johnson E, eds. Handbook of Decision Analysis (Wiley Online Library), 248–290.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Keeney GL, von Winterfeldt D (2010) Identifying and structuring the objectives of terrorists. Risk Anal. 30(12):1803–1816.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Keeney RL (2009) Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA).Google Scholar
  • Keeney RL, Raiffa H (1993) Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-offs (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kusumastuti SA, Blythe J, Rosoff H, John RS (2020) Behavioral determinants of target shifting and deterrence in an analog cyber‐attack game. Risk Anal. 40(3):476–493.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • McNamee P, Celona JN (2007) Decision Analysis for the Professional (SmartOrg, Incorporated, Palo Alto, CA).Google Scholar
  • Merrick J, Parnell GS (2011) A comparative analysis of PRA and intelligent adversary methods for counterterrorism risk management. Risk Anal. 31(9):1488–1510.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Morral AR, Jackson BA (2009) Understanding the Role of Deterrence in Counterterrorism Security (Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Nagin DS (2013) Deterrence in the twenty-first century. Crime Justice 42(1):199–263.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Parnell GS, Smith CM, Moxley FI (2010) Intelligent adversary risk analysis: A bioterrorism risk management model. Risk Anal. 30(1):32–48.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Paté-Cornell E, Guikema S (2002) Probabilistic modeling of terrorist threats: A systems analysis approach to setting priorities among countermeasures. Military Oper. Res. 7(4):5–23.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ridinger G, John RS, McBride M, Scurich N (2016) Attacker deterrence and perceived risk in a Stackelberg security game. Risk Anal. 36(8):1666–1681.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rosoff H, John RS (2017) Decision analysis by proxy for the adaptive adversary. Abbas A, Tambe M, von Winterfeldt D, eds. Improving Homeland Security Decisions (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 709–729.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rosoff H, von Winterfeldt D (2007) A risk and economic analysis of dirty bomb attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Risk Anal. 27(3):533–546.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Schaub G (2004) Deterrence, compellance and prospect theory. Political Psych. 25(3):389–411.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Scurich N, John RS (2014) Perceptions of randomized security schedules. Risk Anal. 34(4):765–770.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Siebert J, von Winterfeldt D, John RS (2016) Identifying and structuring the objectives of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and its followers. Decision Anal. 13(1):26–50.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Siebert JU, von Winterfeldt D (2020) Comparative analysis of terrorists’ objectives hierarchies. Decision Anal. 17(2):97–114.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Thrift S, von Winterfeldt D (2021) Risk-informed benefit–cost analysis for Homeland Security R&D: Methodology and an application to evaluating the advanced personal protection system for wildland firefighters. J. Benefit Cost Anal. 12(2):335–366.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • von Winterfeldt D, O’Sullivan TM (2006) Should we protect commercial airplanes against surface-to-air missile attacks by terrorists? Decision Anal. 3(2):63–75.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • von Winterfeldt D, Farrow R, John R, Eyer J, Rose A, Rosoff H (2020) Assessing the benefits and costs of Homeland Security research: A risk‐informed methodology with applications for the U.S. Coast Guard. Risk Anal. 40(3):450–475.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.