Whose Judgement? Reflections on Elicitation in Bayesian Analysis

References

• Arrow KJ (1963) Social Choice and Individual Values, 2nd ed. (Yale University Press, New Haven, CT).Google Scholar
• Aven T (2003) Foundation of Risk Analysis: A Knowledge and Decision Oriented Perspective (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Aven T (2016) Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 253(1):1–13.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Aven T, Thekdi S (2021) Risk Science: An Introduction (Routledge, Abingdon, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Barker G, Bayley C, Cassidy A, French S, Hart A, Malakar P, Maule J, Petkov M, Shepherd R (2010) Can a participatory approach contribute to food chain risk analysis? Risk Anal. 30(5):766–781.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Barons MJ, Wright SK, Smith JQ (2018) Eliciting probabilistic judgements for integrating decision support systems. Dias LC, Morton A, Quigley J, eds. Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement (Springer, Cham, Switzerland), 445–478.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Bennett PG, Calman KC, eds. (1999) Risk Communication and Public Health: Policy Science and Participation (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK).Google Scholar
• Bennett PG, Calman KC, Curtis S, Fischbacher-Smith D, eds. (2010) Risk Communication and Public Health, 2nd ed. (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Berger JO (2006) The case for objective Bayesian analysis. Bayesian Anal. 1(3):385–402.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Berger JO (2013) Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis (Springer, New York).Google Scholar
• Boulesteix AL, Hoffmann S, Charlton A, Seibold H (2020) A replication crisis in methodological research? Significance 17(5):18–21.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Bousquet N (2024) Discussion of “Specifying prior distributions in reliability applications”: Toward new formal rules for informative prior elicitation? Appl. Stochastic Models Bus. Indust. 40(1):92–102.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Box GEP, Taio GC (1973) Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis (Addison-Wesley, Boston).Google Scholar
• Brownstein NC, Louis TA, O’Hagan A, Pendergast J (2019) The role of expert judgment in statistical inference and evidence-based decision-making. Amer. Statist. 73(Suppl 1):56–68.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Collazo R, Görgen C, Smith JQ (2018) Chain Event Graphs (Taylor & Francis, Abingdon-on-Thames, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Consonni G, Fouskakis D, Liseo B, Ntzoufras I (2018) Prior distributions for objective Bayesian analysis. Bayesian Anal. 13(2):627–679.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Constable AJ, French S, Karoblyte V, Viner D (2022) Decision-making for managing climate-related risks: Unpacking the decision process to avoid “trial-and-error” responses. Frontiers Climate 4:754264.Google Scholar
• De Finetti B (1974) Theory of Probability, vol. 1 (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ).Google Scholar
• De Finetti B (1975) Theory of Probability, vol. 2 (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ).Google Scholar
• DeGroot MH (1970) Optimal Statistical Decisions (McGraw-Hill, New York).Google Scholar
• Dias L, Morton A, Quigley J, eds. (2018) Elicitation of Preferences and Uncertainty: Processes and Procedures (Springer, Cham, Switzerland).Google Scholar
• Doganaksoy N, Rigdon SE (2024) Discussion of “Specifying prior distributions in reliability applications,” by Qinglong Tian, Colin Lewis‐Beck, Jarad B. Niemi, and William Meeker. Appl. Stochastic Models Bus. Indust. 40(1):104–107.Crossref, Google Scholar
• European Food Safety Authority (2014) Guidance on expert knowledge elicitation in food and feed safety risk assessment. EFSA J. 12(6):3734–4012.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Falconer JR, Frank E, Polaschek DL, Joshi C (2022) Methods for eliciting informative prior distributions: A critical review. Decision Anal. 19(3):189–204.Link, Google Scholar
• Franco LA, Montibeller G (2010) Facilitated modelling in operational research. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 205(3):489–500.Crossref, Google Scholar
• French S (1986) Decision Theory: An Introduction to the Mathematics of Rationality (Ellis Horwood, Chichester, UK).Google Scholar
• French S (1995) Uncertainty and imprecision: Modelling and analysis. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 46(1):70–79.Crossref, Google Scholar
• French S (2003) Modelling, making inferences and making decisions: The roles of sensitivity analysis. Trans. Oper. Res. 11(2):229–252.Google Scholar
• French S (2007) Web-enabled strategic GDSS, e-democracy and Arrow’s theorem: A Bayesian perspective. Decision Support Systems 43(4):1476–1484.Crossref, Google Scholar
• French S (2015) Cynefin: Uncertainty, small worlds and scenarios. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 66(10):1635–1645.Crossref, Google Scholar
• French S (2021) From soft to hard elicitation. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 73(6):1181–1197.Crossref, Google Scholar
• French S (2022) Axiomatising the Bayesian paradigm in parallel small worlds. Oper. Res. 70(3):1342–1358.Link, Google Scholar
• French S (2023) Reflections on 50 years of MCDM: Issues and future research needs. EURO J. Decision Processes 11:100030.Crossref, Google Scholar
• French S, Argyris N (2018) Decision analysis and political processes. Decision Anal. 15(4):208–222.Link, Google Scholar
• French S, Rios Insua D (2000) Statistical Decision Theory (Arnold, London).Google Scholar
• French S, Maule AJ, Mythen G (2005) Soft modelling in risk communication and management: Examples in handling food risk. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 56(8):879–888.Crossref, Google Scholar
• French S, Maule AJ, Papamichail KN (2009) Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Dunson DB, Vehtari A, Rubin DB (2013) Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed. (Chapman & Hall, Boca Raton, FL).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gibbard A (1973) Manipulation of voting schemes: A general result. Econometrica 41(4):587–601.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Goldstein M, Rougier JC (2009) Reified Bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems (with discussion). J. Statist. Planning Inference 139(3):1221–1256.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Gregory RS, Failing L, Harstone M, Long G, McDaniels T, Ohlson D (2013) Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices (John Wiley, Hoboken, NJ).Google Scholar
• Hand DJ (2020) Dark Data (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ).Google Scholar
• Hanea A, Nane GF, Bedford T, French S (2021) Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis (Springer, Cham, Switzerland).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Hennig P, Osborne MA, Girolami M (2015) Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations. Proc. Roy. Soc. A 471(2179):20150142.Google Scholar
• Keeney RL (1992) Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision Making (Harvard University Press, Boston).Google Scholar
• Keeney RL (2012) Value-focused brainstorming. Decision Anal. 9(4):303–313.Link, Google Scholar
• Keeney RL, Raiffa H (1976) Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, 1st ed. (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ).Google Scholar
• Keeney RL, Raiffa H (1993) Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, 2nd ed. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kelly FS (1978) Arrow Impossibility Theorems (Academic Press, Cambridge, MA).Google Scholar
• Kunreuther H, Meyer RJ, Michel-Kerjan EO (2019) The Future of Risk Management (University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Leamer EE (1978) Specification Searches (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ).Google Scholar
• Leonelli M, Smith JQ (2015) Bayesian decision support for complex systems with many distributed experts. Ann. Oper. Res. 235(1):517–542.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Marchau V, Walker WE, Bloemen P, Popper S, eds. (2019) Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (Springer, Cham, Switzerland).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Maskin E, Sen A (2014) The Arrow Impossibility Theorem (Columbia University Press, New York).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Mikkola P, Martin OA, Chandramouli S, Hartmann M, Pla OA, Thomas O, Pesonen H, et al. (2021) Prior knowledge elicitation: The past, present, and future. Preprint, submitted December 1, https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.01380.Google Scholar
• Montibeller G, Gummer H, Tumidei D (2006) Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice. J. Multi-Criteria Decision Anal. 14(1–3):5–20.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Morton A, Airoldi M, Phillips LD (2009) Nuclear risk management on stage: A decision analysis perspective on the UK’s Committee on Radioactive Waste Management. Risk Anal. 29(5):764–779.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Mustajoki J, Saarikoski H, Belton V, Hjerppe T, Marttunen M (2020) Utilizing ecosystem service classifications in multi-criteria decision analysis—Experiences of peat extraction case in Finland. Ecosystem Services 41:101049.Crossref, Google Scholar
• O’Hagan A (2019) Expert knowledge elicitation: Subjective but scientific. Amer. Statist. 73(Suppl 1):69–81.Crossref, Google Scholar
• O’Hagan A, Forster J (2004) Bayesian Statistics, vol. 2b (Edward Arnold, London).Google Scholar
• Osborne MJ (2003) An Introduction to Game Theory (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK).Google Scholar
• Peterson TR, Thompson JL (2020) Environmental risk communication: Responding to challenges of complexity and uncertainty. Handbook of Risk and Crisis Communication (Routledge, Abingdon, UK), 591–606.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Phillips LD (1984) A theory of requisite decision models. Acta Psychol. 56(1–3):29–48.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Phillips LD (2007) Decision conferencing. Edwards W, Miles RF, von Winterfeldt D, eds. Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK), 375–399.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Phillips LD (2011) Group dynamics processes for improved decision making. Cochran JJ, Cox Jr LA, Keskinocak P, Kharoufeh JP, Smith JC, eds. Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Raiffa H (1968) Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choice under Uncertainty (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA).Google Scholar
• Raiffa H, Richardson J, Metcalfe D (2002) Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making (Harvard University Press, Boston).Google Scholar
• Ramsey FP (1926) Truth and probability. Braithwaite RB, ed. The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays (Harcourt Brace and Co., London).Google Scholar
• Rios Insua D, ed. (1999) Special issue: Sensitivity analysis in MCDA. J. Multi-Criteria Decision Anal. 8(3):117–187.Google Scholar
• Rios Insua D, Ruggeri F (2000) Robust Bayesian Analysis (Springer, London).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Satterthwaite MA (1975) Strategy-proofness and Arrow’s conditions: Existence and correspondence theorems for voting procedures and social welfare functions. J. Econom. Theory 10(2):187–217.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Savage LJ (1972) The Foundations of Statistics, 2nd ed. (Dover, New York).Google Scholar
• Sen A (2017) Collective Choice and Social Welfare, expanded ed. (Penguin, London).Google Scholar
• Shafer G (1986) Savage revisited. Statist. Sci. 1(4):463–485.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Shepherd R, Barker G, French S, Hart A, Maule J, Cassidy A (2006) Managing food chain risks: Integrating technical and stakeholder perspectives on uncertainty. J. Agricultural Econom. 57(2):313–327.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Singpurwalla ND (2006) Reliability and Risk: A Bayesian Perspective (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Smith JQ (2010) Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Stewart TJ, French S, Rios J (2013) Integration of multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning. Omega 41(4):679–688.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Stewart TJ, Joubert A, Janssen R (2010) MCDA framework for fishing rights allocation in South Africa. Group Decision Negotiation 19(3):247–265.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Tian Q, Lewis‐Beck C, Niemi JB, Meeker WQ (2024) Specifying prior distributions in reliability applications. Appl. Stochastic Models Bus. Indust. 40(1):5–62.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Turkman MAA, Paulino CD, Müller P (2019) Computational Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
• Vernon I, Gosling JP (2023) A Bayesian computer model analysis of robust Bayesian analyses. Bayesian Anal. 18(4):1367–1399.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Wasserstein RL, Lazar NA (2016) The ASA statement on p-values: Context, process, and purpose. Amer. Statist. 70(2):129–133.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Williamson D, Goldstein M (2015) Posterior belief assessment: Extracting meaningful subjective judgements from Bayesian analyses with complex statistical models. Bayesian Anal. 10(4):877–908.Crossref, Google Scholar