Neutral Pivoting: Strong Bias Correction for Shared Information

References

• Armstrong JS (2001) Combining forecasts. Hillier FS, Armstrong JS, eds. Principles of Forecasting, vol. 30 (Springer US, Boston), 417–439.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Howe PDL, Martinie M, Wilkening T (2024) Using cross-domain expertise to aggregate forecasts when within-domain expertise is unknown. Decision (Wash. D.C.) 11(1):35–59.Google Scholar
• Jose VRR, Winkler RL (2008) Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results. Internat. J. Forecast. 24(1):163–169.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Palley AB, Satopää VA (2023) Boosting the wisdom of crowds within a single judgment problem: Weighted averaging based on peer predictions. Management Sci. 69(9):5128–5146.Link, Google Scholar
• Palley AB, Soll JB (2019) Extracting the wisdom of crowds when information is shared. Management Sci. 65(5):2291–2309.Abstract, Google Scholar
• Peker C (2023) Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments. Theory Decision 94(3):467–501.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Peker C, Wilkening T (2024) Robust recalibration of aggregate probability forecasts using meta-beliefs. Internat. J. Forecast.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Stock JH, Watson MW (2004) Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set. J. Forecast 23(6):405–430.Crossref, Google Scholar
• Surowiecki J (2005) The Wisdom of Crowds (Anchor, New York).Google Scholar
• Wilkening T, Martinie M, Howe PDL (2022) Hidden experts in the crowd: Using meta-predictions to leverage expertise in single-question prediction problems. Management Sci. 68(1):487–508.Link, Google Scholar