Rebuttal of “Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit”
Published Online:22 Apr 2009https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.1090.0444
References
- Polar Bears: Proc. 14th Working Meeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialists Group (2006) (World Conservation Union, Gland, Switzerland) Google Scholar
- , Feldhammer G. A., Thompson B. C., Chapman J. A. Polar bear. Wild Mammals of North America: Biology, Management, and Conservation (2003) 2nd ed.(Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore) Google Scholar
- Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. (2007) . Administrative report, US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AKGoogle Scholar
- Using satellite radiotelemetry data to delineate and manage wildlife populations. Wildlife Soc. Bull. (2004) 32(3):661–679Crossref, Google Scholar
- Past and present status of polar bears in Alaska. Wildlife Soc. Bull. (1986) 14(3):241–254Google Scholar
- Movements and distribution of polar bears in the Beaufort Sea. Canadian J. Zoology (2000) 78(6):948–966Crossref, Google Scholar
- Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (2001) (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA) Crossref, Google Scholar
- Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces (2008) 38(5):382–405Link, Google Scholar
- Insurer warns of global warming catastrophe. Common Dreams (2004) March 3). Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://www.commondreams.org/cgi-bin/print.cgi?file=/headlines04/0303-07.htmGoogle Scholar
- Insurance company warns of global warming's costs. Live Science (2005) November 1). Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://www.livescience.com/environment/051101_insurance_warming.htmlGoogle Scholar
- Observations of polar bear predatory behaviour toward caribou. Arctic (2002) 55(2):193–196Crossref, Google Scholar
- Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA (2007) 104(47):18866–18870Crossref, Google Scholar
- CAPE Last Interglacial Project Members Last interglacial arctic warmth confirms polar amplification of climate change. Quaternary Sci. Rev. (2006) 25(13–14):1383–1400Crossref, Google Scholar
- Charney J. G. Carbon dioxide and climate: A scientific assessment. (1979) . Report of the ad hoc study group on carbon dioxide and climate, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
- A commentary on polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces (2008) 38(5):395–400Google Scholar
- Abrupt decline in the Arctic winter sea ice cover. Geophysical Res. Lett. (2006) 33(18). L18504. doi:10.1029/2006GL027341Crossref, Google Scholar
- Interspecific and intraspecific mitochondrial DNA variation in North American bears (Ursus). Canadian J. Zoology (1991) 69(12):2985–2992Crossref, Google Scholar
- Estimation of polar bear population size and survival in western Hudson Bay. J. Wildlife Management (1995) 59(2):215–221Crossref, Google Scholar
- Polar bears in a warming climate. Integrative Comparative Biol. (2004) 44(2):163–176Crossref, Google Scholar
- Predation of Svalbard reindeer by polar bears. Polar Biol. (2000) 23(10):675–678Crossref, Google Scholar
- Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models. Ecological Monographs (2009) 79(1):25–58Crossref, Google Scholar
- Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor? Ecological Complexity (2007) 4:73–84Crossref, Google Scholar
- Magic number: A sketchy “fact” about polar bears keeps going…and going…and going. Society of Environmental Journalists (2008) July 23). Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://www.sej.org/pub/SEJournal_Excerpts_Su08.htmGoogle Scholar
- Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts. Energy Environ. (2007) 18(7–8):997–1021Crossref, Google Scholar
- Greenhouse gas growth rates. Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA (2004) 101(46):16109–16114Crossref, Google Scholar
- Global temperature change. Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA (2006) 103(39):14288–14293Crossref, Google Scholar
- , Fiocco G., Fua D., Visconti G. A Pinatubo climate modeling investigation. The Mount Pinatubo Eruption: Effects on the Atmosphere and Climate (1996) I42(Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany) 233–272NATO ASI SeriesCrossref, Google Scholar
- Global Physical Climatology (1994) 56(Academic Press, San Diego) International Geophysics SeriesGoogle Scholar
- Water vapor feedback and global warming. Annual Rev. Energy Environ. (2000) 25(1):441–475Crossref, Google Scholar
- Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate (2006) 19(21):5686–5699Crossref, Google Scholar
- Isotopic homogeneity of breath CO2 from fasting and berry-eating polar bears: Implications for tracing reliance on terrestrial foods in a changing Arctic. Canadian J. Zoology (2009) 87(1):50–55Crossref, Google Scholar
- Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophysical Res. Lett. (2006) 33(23). L23503. doi:10.1029/2006GL028024Crossref, Google Scholar
- Polar bear demography in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice. (2007) . Administrative report, US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AKGoogle Scholar
- , Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K. B., Tignor M., Miller H. L. Paleoclimate. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007) (Contributions of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York) 433–497Google Scholar
- Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs (2001) (Springer-Verlag, New York) Crossref, Google Scholar
- We've saved the ice bear. Internat. Wildlife (1984) 14(4):4–11Google Scholar
- Population Biology of the Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) in the Svalbard Area (1986) (Norsk Polarinstitutt Skrifter 184, Oslo, Norway) Google Scholar
- A call for a softer, greener language. New York Times (2003) March 2). Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CEFD6113CF931A35750C0A9659C8B63Google Scholar
- , Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K. B., Tignor M., Miller H. L. Historical overview of climate change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007) (Contributions of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York) 93–127Google Scholar
- Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003. Geophysical Res. Lett. (2005) 32(2). L02604. doi:10.1029/ 2004GL021592Crossref, Google Scholar
- The Atmosphere (2004) (Pearson Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ) Google Scholar
- On the record reduction in 1998 western Arctic sea-ice cover. Geophysical Res. Lett. (1999) 26(13):1905–1908Crossref, Google Scholar
- Recent decreases in Arctic summer ice cover and linkages to atmospheric circulation anomalies. Geophysical Res. Lett. (1996) 23(13):1677–1680Crossref, Google Scholar
- , Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K. B., Tignor M., Miller H. L. Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007) (Contributions of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York) 747–845Google Scholar
- Whither Arctic sea ice? A clear signal of decline regionally, seasonally and extending beyond the satellite record. Ann. Glaciology (2007) 46(1):428–434Crossref, Google Scholar
- Trends in the draft and extent of seasonal pack ice, Canadian Beaufort Sea. Geophysical Res. Lett. (2005) . L24501. doi:10.1029/2005GL024483Google Scholar
- Doubt Is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health (2008) (Oxford University Press, New York) Google Scholar
- Brown and black bear density estimation in Alaska using radiotelemetry and replicated mark-resight techniques. Wildlife Monographs (1997) 133:1–55Google Scholar
- Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (2000) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK) Google Scholar
- Temporal trends in the body condition of southern Hudson Bay polar bears. (2006) . Research Information Note 3, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://assets.panda.org/downloads/obbard_et_al_ccrn__3.pdfGoogle Scholar
- Arctic system on trajectory to new, seasonally ice-free state. Eos Trans. Amer. Geophysical Union (2005) 86(34):309312–313Crossref, Google Scholar
- Is the Temperature Rising? The Uncertain Science of Global Warming (1998) (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ) Google Scholar
- , May R. M. Competition and niche theory. Theoretical Ecology (1981) 2nd ed.(Blackwell Publishers Ltd., Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA) 167–196Google Scholar
- International polar bear agreement and the current status of polar bear conservation. Aquatic Mammals (1994) 20(3):113–124Google Scholar
- The status of polar bears in Ontario. Naturaliste Canadien (1982) 109:933–939Google Scholar
- Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science (2007) 316:709Crossref, Google Scholar
- Polar bears make little use of terrestrial food webs: Evidence from stable-carbon isotope analysis. Oecologia (1991) 86:598–600Crossref, Google Scholar
- , Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K. B., Tignor M., Miller H. L. Climate models and their evaluation. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007) (Contributions of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press)589–662Google Scholar
- Polar bear population status in the southern Beaufort Sea. (2006) . US Geological Survey Open-File Report 2006–1337. Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1337/pdf/ofr20061337.pdfGoogle Scholar
- Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay. J. Wildlife Management (2007a) 71(8):2673–2683Crossref, Google Scholar
- Survival and reproduction of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to declining sea ice. (2007b) . Administrative report, US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AKGoogle Scholar
- The poles: Arctic. Bull. Amer. Meteorological Soc. (2007) 88(6):S62–S71 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/ann/bams/bams.pdf. [A. Arguez, ed. State of the Climate in 2006.]Google Scholar
- State of the Arctic. (2006) . Special Report, Contribution 2952 from Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Seattle. Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/PDF/rich2952/rich2952.pdfGoogle Scholar
- Variations in the age of Arctic sea-ice and summer sea-ice extent. Geophysical Res. Lett. (2004) 31L09401. doi:10.1029/2004GL019492Crossref, Google Scholar
- Nutritional ecology of ursids: A review of newer methods and management implications. Ursus (2004) 15(2):161–171Crossref, Google Scholar
- Polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea III: Stature, mass, and cub recruitment in relationship to time and sea ice extent between 1982 and 2006. (2007) . Administrative report, US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AKGoogle Scholar
- Constraints on herbivory by grizzly bears. Oecologia (2001) 128:62–71Crossref, Google Scholar
- New combatant against global warming: Insurance industry. Christian Science Monitor (2006) October 13). Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1013/p01s01-usec.htmGoogle Scholar
- The Arctic amplification debate. Climatic Change (2006) 76(3–4):241–264Crossref, Google Scholar
- Perspectives on the Arctic's shrinking sea-ice cover. Science (2007) 315(5818):1533–1536Crossref, Google Scholar
- SitNews Congress passes resolution protecting Arctic fisheries. (2008) May 22). Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://www.sitnews.us/0508news/052208/052208_fisheries.htmlGoogle Scholar
- Global cooling after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo: A test of climate feedback by water vapor. Science (2002) 296(5568):727–730Crossref, Google Scholar
- The polar bear Ursus maritimus feeding in a seabird colony in Frans Josef Land. Polar Res. (1993) 12(1):33–36Crossref, Google Scholar
- Polar bear predatory behaviour toward molting barnacle geese and nesting glaucous gulls on Spitsbergen. Arctic (2006) 59(3):247–251Google Scholar
- Polar bears and seals in the eastern Beaufort Sea and Amundsen Gulf: A synthesis of population trends and ecological relationships over three decades. Arctic (2002) 55(S1):59–76Google Scholar
- Relationships between estimates of ringed seal (Phoca hispida) and polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations in the Canadian Arctic. Canadian J. Fisheries Aquatic Sci. (1995) 52(12):2594–2612Crossref, Google Scholar
- Possible effects of climate warming on selected populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic (2006) 59(3):261–275Google Scholar
- Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climatic change. Arctic (1999) 52(3):294–306Crossref, Google Scholar
- Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay. Ecological Complexity (2008) 5:193–201Crossref, Google Scholar
- Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophysical Res. Lett. (2007) 34(9). L09501. doi:10.1029/2004GL021810Crossref, Google Scholar
- Tracking the Arctic's shrinking ice cover: Another extreme September minimum. Geophysical Res. Lett. (2005) 32L04501. doi:10.1029/2007GL029703Crossref, Google Scholar
- Phylogeography of brown bears (Ursus arctos) of Alaska and paraphyly within the Ursidae. Molecular Phylogenetics Evolution (1996) 5(3):477–494Crossref, Google Scholar
- Predictions of climate. Nature.com (2007) June 4). Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://blogs.nature.com/climate feedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.htmlGoogle Scholar
- US Climate Change Science Program Scientific assessment of the effects of global change on the United States. (2008) . National Science and Technology Council, Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources. Retrieved March 12, 2009, http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-assessment/Scientific-AssessmentFINAL.pdfGoogle Scholar
- US Fish and Wildlife Service Endangered and threatened wildlife and plants: Twelve-month petition finding and proposed rule to list the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as threatened throughout its range. Federal Register (2007) 72(5):1064–1099Google Scholar
- US Fish and Wildlife Service Endangered and threatened wildlife and plants: Determination of threatened status for the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) throughout its range. Federal Register (2008) 73(95):28211–28303Google Scholar
- US Government Accountability Office Climate change: Financial risks to federal and private insurers in coming decades are potentially significant. (2007) . Report GAO-07-285, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
- New Coast Guard task in Arctic's warming seas. NY Times (2007) October 19). Retrieved April 8, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/19/us/19arctic.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&pagewanted=printGoogle Scholar
- The Discovery of Global Warming (2003) (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA) Google Scholar
- Constraints on frugivory by bears. Ecology (1997) 78(4):1105–1119Crossref, Google Scholar
- Increasing Antarctic sea ice under warming atmospheric and oceanic conditions. J. Climate (2007) 20(11):2515–2529Crossref, Google Scholar
- Toward a seasonally ice-covered Arctic ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4 model simulations. J. Climate (2006) 19(9):1730–1747Crossref, Google Scholar

