The Effect of Payoff Feedback and Information Pooling on Reasoning Errors: Evidence from Experimental Markets

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0426

References

  • Ariely D., Simonson I. Buying, bidding, playing, or competing? Value assessment and decision dynamics in online auctions. J. Consumer Psych. (2003) 13:113–123CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bossaerts P., Fine L., Ledyard J. Inducing liquidity in thin financial markets through combined-value trading mechanisms. Eur. Econom. Rev. (2002) 46:1671–1695CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Camerer C. F. Do biases in probability judgment matter in markets? Experimental evidence. Amer. Econom. Rev. (1987) 77:981–997Google Scholar
  • Camerer C. F., Kagel J. H., Roth A. E. Individual decision making. Handbook of Experimental Economics (1995) (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ) 587–703CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Camerer C. F., Babcock L., Loewenstein G., Thaler R. H. Labor supply of New York City cab drivers: One day at a time. Quart. J. Econom. (1997) 112:407–441CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chan N., Dahan E., Kim A., Lo A., Poggio T. Securities trading of concepts (STOC). (2002) . Working paper, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MAGoogle Scholar
  • Chen K.-Y., Plott C. R. Information aggregation mechanisms: Concept, design and implementation for a sales forecasting problem. (2002) . Working paper, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CAGoogle Scholar
  • Duh R. R., Sunder S., Moriarty S. Incentives, learning and processing of information in a market environment: An examination of the base-rate fallacy. Laboratory Market Research (1986) (University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK) 50–79Google Scholar
  • Evans J. S. B. T., Over D. E. Rationality in the selection task: Epistemic utility versus uncertainty reduction. Psych. Rev. (1996) 103:356–363CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fama E. Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. J. Finance (1970) 25:383–417CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fischbacher U. Z-tree. Zurich toolbox for readymade economic experiments: Experimenter’s manual. (1999) . Working paper, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandGoogle Scholar
  • Forsythe R., Nelson G. R., Neumann G. R., Wright J. Anatomy of an experimental political stock market. Amer. Econom. Rev. (1992) 82:1142–1161Google Scholar
  • Friedman D. Monty Hall’s three doors: Construction and deconstruction of a choice anomaly. Amer. Econom. Rev. (1998) 88:933–946Google Scholar
  • Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D.Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2002) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK) CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Griggs R. A., Cox J. R. The effects of problem content and negation on Wason’s selection task. Quart. J. Experiment. Psych. (1983) 35A:519–533CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hastie R.Inside the Juror: The Psychology of Juror Decision Making (1995) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK) Google Scholar
  • Hirshleifer D. Investor psychology and asset pricing. J. Finance (2001) 56:1533–1598CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kahneman D., Tversky A. Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psych. (1972) 3:430–454CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kahneman D., Tversky A.Choices, Values and Frames (2000) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK) CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kirchsteiger G., Niederle M., Potters J. Endogenizing market institutions: An experimental approach. Eur. Econom. Rev. (2005) 49:1827–1853CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Laughlin P. R., Bonner B. L., Altermatt T. W. Collective versus individual induction with single versus multiple hypotheses. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (1998) 78:1481–1489CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Nickerson R. Hempel’s paradox and Wason’s selection task: Logical and psychological puzzles of confirmation. Thinking Reasoning (1996) 2:1–31CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Oaksford M., Chater N.Rationality in an Uncertain World: Essays on the Cognitive Science of Human Reasoning (1998) (Psychology Press, Hove, Sussex, UK) CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Pekeč A., Rothkopf M. H. Combinatorial auction design. Management Sci. (2003) 49:1485–1503LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Pennock D. M., Lawrence S., Giles C. L., Nielsen F. A. The real power of artificial markets. Science (2001) 291:987–988CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Plott C. R., Sunder S. Efficiency of experimental security markets with insider information: An application of rational-expectations models. J. Political Econom. (1982) 90:663–698CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Plott C. R., Sunder S. Rational expectations and the aggregation of diverse information in laboratory security markets. Econometrica (1988) 56:1085–1118CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Plott C. R., Wilde L., Smith V. L. Professional diagnosis vs. self-diagnosis: An experimental examination of some special features of markets with uncertainty. Research in Experimental Economics (1982) (JAI Press, Greenwich, CT) 3–20Google Scholar
  • Pollard P., Evans J. S. B. T. Content and context effects in reasoning. Amer. J. Psych. (1987) 100:41–60CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Quattrone G. A., Tversky A. Contrasting rational and psychological analyses of political choice. Amer. Political Sci. Rev. (1988) 82:720–736CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rassenti S. J., Smith V. L., Bulfin R. L. A combinatorial auction mechanism for airport time slot allocation. Bell J. Econom. (1982) 13:402–417CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Roth A. E., Ockenfels A. Last-minute bidding and the rules for ending second-price auctions: Evidence from the eBay and Amazon auctions on the Internet. Amer. Econom. Rev. (2002) 92:1093–1103CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Sandholm T. Algorithm for optimal winner determination in combinatorial auctions. Artificial Intelligence (2002) 135:1–54CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Schmidt C., Werwatz A. How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment. (2001) . Working paper, Max Planck Institute for Research into Economic Systems, Jena, GermanGoogle Scholar
  • Slembeck T., Tyran J.-R. Do institutions promote rationality? An experimental study of the three-door anomaly. J. Econom. Behavior Organ. (2004) 54:337–350CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Spann M., Skiera B. Internet-based virtual stock markets for business forecasting. Management Sci. (2003) 49:1310–1326LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Sunder S., Kagel J. H., Roth A. E. Experimental asset markets. Handbook of Experimental Economics (1995) (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ) 445–500Google Scholar
  • Sunstein C. R.Behavioral Law and Economics (2000) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK) CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wason P. C., Foss B. Reasoning. New Horizons in Psychology (1966) (Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, UK) 135–151Google Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.