Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0459

References

  • Allen V. L., Berkowitz L. Situational factors in conformity. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology (1965) Vol. 2(Academic Press, New York) 133–175CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ariely D., Au W. T., Bender R. H., Budescu D. V., Dietz C., Gu H., Wallsten T. S., Zauberman G. The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges. J. Experiment. Psych.: Appl. (2000) 6:130–147CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Armstrong J. S., Armstrong J. S. Combining forecasts. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (2001) (Kluwer, New York) CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Brase G. L. Ecological and evolutionary validity: Comments on Johnson-Laird, Legrenzi, Girotto, Legrenzi, & Carverni's (1999) Mental Model Theory of extensional reasoning. Psych. Rev. (2002) 109:722–228CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bruce R. S. Group judgments in the fields of lifted weights and visual discrimination. J. Psych. (1935) 1:117–121CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Clemen R. T. Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. Internat. J. Forecasting (1989) 5:559–609CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Clemen R. T., Winkler R. L. Combining economic forecasts. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. (1986) 4:39–46CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Curley S. P., Browne G. J. Normative and descriptive analysis of Simpson's Paradox in decision making. Organ. Behavior Human Decision Processes (2001) 84:308–333CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Dawes R. M., Corrigan B. Linear models in decision making. Psych. Bull. (1974) 81:95–106CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Deutsch M., Gerard H. B. A study of normative and informational social influences upon individual judgment. J. Abnormal Social Psych. (1955) 51:629–636CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Einhorn H. J., Hogarth R. M., Klempner E. Quality of group judgment. Psych. Bull. (1977) 84:158–172CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Eysenck H. J. The validity of judgments as a function of number of judges. J. Experiment. Psych. (1939) 25:650–654CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fiedler K. Beware of samples! A cognitive-ecological sampling approach to judgment biases. Psych. Rev. (2000) 107:659–676CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fildes R., Makridakis S. The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting. Internat. Statist. Rev. (1995) 63:289–308CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fisher B. A., Ellis D. G.Small Group Decision Making: Communication and the Group Process (1990) (McGraw Hill, New York) Google Scholar
  • Fiske A. P., Kitayama S., Markus H. R., Nisbett R. E., Gilbert D. T., Fiske S. T., Lindzey G. The cultural matrix of social psychology. The Handbook of Social Psychology (1998) Vol. 2(McGraw Hill, New York) 915–981Google Scholar
  • Gigone D., Hastie R. Proper analysis of the accuracy of group judgments. Psych. Bull. (1997) 121:149–167CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gonzalez R. When words speak louder than actions: Another’s evaluations can appear more diagnostic than their decisions. Organ. Behavior Human Decision Processes (1994) 58:214–245CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gordon K. Group judgments in the field of lifted weights. J. Experiment. Psych. (1924) 3:398–400CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Gordon K. Further observations on group judgments of lifted weights. J. Psych. (1935) 1:105–115CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Harvey N., Fischer I. Taking advice: Accepting help, improving judgment, and sharing responsibility. Organ. Behavior Human Decision Processes (1997) 70:117–133CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hastie R., Grofman B., Owen G. Experimental evidence on group accuracy. Information Pooling and Group Decision Making (1986) (JAI Press, Greenwich, CT) 129–157Google Scholar
  • Hastie R., Kameda T. The robust beauty of the majority rule. Psych. Rev. (2005) 112:494–508CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hoffrage U., Lindsey S., Hertwig R., Gigerenzer G. Communicating statistical information. Science (2000) 290:2261–2262CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hofstede G.Culture's Consequences (1984) (Sage, Newbury Park, CA) Google Scholar
  • Hogarth R. M. A note on aggregating opinions. Organ. Behavior Human Decision Processes (1978) 21:40–46CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hogarth R. M.Educating Intuition (2001) (The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL) Google Scholar
  • Holland J. H., Holyoak K. J., Nisbett R. E., Thagard P. R.Induction: Processes of Inference, Learning, and Discovery (1986) (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA) CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Johnson T. R., Budescu D. V., Wallsten T. S. Averaging probability judgments: Monte Carlo analyses of asymptotic diagnostic values. J. Behavioral Decision Making (2001) 14:123–140CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kahneman D., Frederick S., Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D. Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2002) (Cambridge University Press, New York) 49–81CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kelley T. L. The applicability of the Spearman-Brown formula for the measurement of reliability. J. Ed. Psych. (1925) 16:300–303CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kleinmuntz B. Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: Toward an integrative approach. Psych. Bull. (1990) 107:296–310CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Knight H. C.A Comparison of the Reliability of Group and Individual Judgments (1921) . Master's thesis, Columbia University, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  • Lewis C., Keren G. On the difficulties underlying Bayesian reasoning: A comment on Gigerenzer and Hoffrage. Psych. Rev. (1999) 106:411–416CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Lorge I., Fox D., Davitz J., Brenner M. A survey of studies contrasting the quality of group performance and individual performance, 1920–1957. Psych. Bull. (1958) 55:337–372CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Messick D. M., Asuncion A. G. The Will Rogers illusion in judgments about social groups. Psych. Sci. (1993) 4:46–48CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Nisbett R. E., Ross L.Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment (1980) (Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ) Google Scholar
  • Nisbett R. E., Krantz D. H., Jepson C., Kunda Z. The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning. Psych. Rev. (1983) 90:339–363CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Nisbett R. E., Peng K., Choi I., Norenzayan A. Culture and systems of thought: Holistic versus analytic cognition. Psych. Rev. (2001) 108:291–310CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Oyserman D., Coon H. M., Kemmelmeier M. Rethinking individualism and collectivism: Evaluation of theoretical assumptions and meta-analyses. Psych. Bull. (2002) 128:3–72CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Preston M. G. Note on the reliability and validity of the group judgment. J. Experiment. Psych. (1938) 22:462–471CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Raiffa H.The Art and Science of Negotiation (1982) (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA) Google Scholar
  • Ross L., Nisbett R. E.The Person and the Situation: Perspectives of Social Psychology (1991) (McGraw Hill, New York) Google Scholar
  • Shaw M. E.Group Dynamics: The Psychology of Small Group Behavior (1976) 2nd edition(McGraw-Hill, New York) Google Scholar
  • Simpson E. H. The interpretation of interaction in contingency tables. J. Roy. Statist. Social (Ser. B) (1951) 13:238–241Google Scholar
  • Singelis T. M. The measurement of independent and interdependent self-construals: An individual level analysis. Personality Social Psych. Bull. (1994) 20:580–591CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Smith M. Group judgments in the field of personality traits. J. Experiment. Psych. (1931) 14:562–565CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Soll J. B. Intuitive theories of information: Beliefs about the value of redundancy. Cognitive Psych. (1999) 38:317–346CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Soll J. B., Larrick R. P. Strategies for revising judgment: How, and how well, do people use others' opinions? (2005) (Duke University, Durham, NC) Google Scholar
  • Sorkin R. D., West R., Robinson D. E. Group performance depends on the majority rule. Psych. Sci. (1998) 9:456–463CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Stanovich K. E., West R. F. Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? Behavioral Brain Sci. (2000) 23:645–665CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Steiner I. D.Group Processes and Productivity (1972) (Academic Press, New York) Google Scholar
  • Stroop J. R. Is the judgment of the group better than that of the average member of the group? J. Experiment. Psych. (1932) 15:550–562CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Surowiecki J.The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations (2004) (Doubleday, New York) Google Scholar
  • Triandis H.Individualism and Collectivism (1995) (Westview, Boulder, CO) Google Scholar
  • Tversky A., Kahneman D. Extensional vs. intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psych. Rev. (1983) 90:293–315CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • von Winterfeldt D., Edwards W.Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research (1986) (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK) Google Scholar
  • Wallsten T. S., Budescu D. V., Erev I., Diederich A. Evaluating and combining subjective probability estimates. J. Behavioral Decision Making (1997) 10:243–268CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Watson G. B. Do groups think more efficiently than individuals? J. Abnormal Social Psych. (1928) 23:328–336CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • White B. Wall Street agrees to mend its ways. The Washington Post (2002) December 21):A1Google Scholar
  • Yaniv I. Receiving other people's advice: Influence and benefit. Organ. Behavior Human Decision Processes (2004) 93:1–13CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Yaniv I., Kleinberger E. Advice taking in decision making: Egocentric discounting and reputation formation. Organ. Behavior Human Decision Processes (2000) 83:260–281CrossrefGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.