Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters

References

• Brier G. W. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Rev. (1950) 78:1–3Crossref, Google Scholar
• Dawid A. P., DeGroot M. H., Mortera J. Coherent combinations of experts' opinions. Test (1995) 4(2):263–313Crossref, Google Scholar
• de Finetti B., Good I. J. Does it make sense to speak of “good probability appraisers?”. The Scientist Speculates: An Anthology of Partly-Baked Ideas (1962) (Wiley, New York) 357–363Google Scholar
• Frank R. H., Cook P. J.The Winner-Take-All Society (1995) (Free Press, New York) Google Scholar
• Fudenberg D., Tirole J.Game Theory (1991) (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA) Google Scholar
• Gaba A., Tsetlin I., Winkler R. L. Modifying variability and correlations in winner-take-all contests. Oper. Res. (2004) 52(3):384–395Link, Google Scholar
• Kadane J. B., Winkler R. L. Separating probability elicitation from utilities. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. (1988) 83(2):357–363Crossref, Google Scholar
• Kilgour D. M., Gerchak Y. Elicitation of probabilities using competitive scoring rules. Decision Anal. (2004) 1(2):108–113Link, Google Scholar
• Lebrun B. First price auctions in the asymmetric N bidder case. Internat Econom. Rev. (1999) 40(1):125–142Crossref, Google Scholar
• Marshall R. C., Meurer M. J., Richard J.-F., Stromquist W. Numerical analysis of asymmetric first price auctions. Games Econom. Behav. (1994) 7(2):193–220Crossref, Google Scholar
• McCarthy J. Measures of the value of information. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA (1956) 42:654–655Crossref, Google Scholar
• Morris P. A. Decision analysis expert use. Management Sci. (1974) 20(9):1233–1241Link, Google Scholar
• O'Hagan A., Buck C. E., Daneshkhah A., Eiser J. R., Garthwaite P. H., Jenkinson D. J., Oakley J. E., Rakow T.Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (2006) (Wiley, Chichester, UK) Crossref, Google Scholar
• Ottaviani M., Sorensen P. N. Forecasting and rank-order contests. (2005) . Working paper, London Business School, London, UKGoogle Scholar
• Pfeifer P. E. Are we overconfident in the belief that probability forecasters are overconfident? Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (1994) 58:203–213Crossref, Google Scholar
• Prelec D. A Bayesian truth serum for subjective data. Science (2004) 306 :462–466Crossref, Google Scholar
• Savage L. J. Elicitation of personal probabilities and expectations. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. (1971) 66:783–801Crossref, Google Scholar
• Schervish M. J. A general method for comparing probability assessors. Ann. Statist. (1989) 17:1856–1879Crossref, Google Scholar
• Tetlock P. E.Expert Political Judgment (2005) (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ) Google Scholar
• Winkler R. L. Scoring rules and the evaluation of probability assessors. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. (1969) 64(3):1073–1078Crossref, Google Scholar
• Winkler R. L. Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities. Test (1996) 5(1):1–60Crossref, Google Scholar
• Winkler R. L., Murphy A. H. Nonlinear utility and the probability score. J. Appl. Meteorolgy (1970) 9(1):143–148Crossref, Google Scholar