Hindsight Bias, Risk Perception, and Investment Performance
Published Online:23 Apr 2009https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1090.1000
References
- Outcome bias in decision evaluation. J. Personality Soc. Psych. (1988) 54:569–579Crossref, Google Scholar
- Hindsight bias and investment performance. (2007) . Working Paper 476, Institut d'Économie Industrielle, Toulouse, FranceGoogle Scholar
- Judgemental overconfidence, self-monitoring, and trading performance in an experimental financial market. Rev. Econom. Stud. (2005) 72:287–312Crossref, Google Scholar
- Hindsight bias and strategic choice: Some problems in learning from experience. Acad. Management J. (1988) 31:628–641Crossref, Google Scholar
- The effects of financial incentives in experiments: A review and capital-labor-production framework. J. Risk Uncertainty (1999) 19:7–42Crossref, Google Scholar
- Do biases in probability judgment matter in markets? Experimental evidence. Amer. Econom. Rev. (1987) 77:981–997Google Scholar
- The curse of knowledge in economic settings: An experimental analysis. J. Political Econom. (1989) 97:1232–1254Crossref, Google Scholar
- Motivational interpretations of hindsight bias: An individual difference analysis. J. Personality (1983) 51:605–620Crossref, Google Scholar
- Cognitive reconstruction, hindsight, and reactions to victims and perpetrators. Personality Soc. Psych. Bull. (1999) 25:966–979Crossref, Google Scholar
- The hindsight bias: A meta–analysis. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (1991) 48:147–168Crossref, Google Scholar
- Trading on illusions: Unrealistic perceptions of control and trading performance. J. Occupational Organ. Psych. (2003) 76:53–68Crossref, Google Scholar
- Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. J. Experiment. Psych.: Human Percep. Perform. (1975) 1:288–299Crossref, Google Scholar
- , Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A. For those condemned to study the past: Heuristics and biases in hindsight. Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1982) (Cambridge University Press, New York) 332–351Crossref, Google Scholar
- I knew it would happen—Remembered probabilities of once-future things. Organ. Behav. Human Performance (1975) 13:1–16Crossref, Google Scholar
- Overconfidence and trading volume. Geneva Risk Insurance Rev. (2007) 32:1–36Crossref, Google Scholar
- Overconfidence of professionals and Laymen: Individual differences within and between tasks? (2005) . Working paper, Mannheim University, GermanyGoogle Scholar
- Do professional traders exhibit myopic loss aversion? An experimental analysis. J. Finance (2005) 60:523–534Crossref, Google Scholar
- Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psych. Bull. (1990) 107:311–327Crossref, Google Scholar
- Hindsight bias in economic expectations: I knew all along what I want to hear. J. Appl. Psych. (2002) 87:437–443Crossref, Google Scholar
- Three-point approximations for continuous randomvariables. Management Sci. (1983) 29:595–609Link, Google Scholar
- Overconfidence: It depends on how, what and whom you ask. Organ. Behav. Human Decision Processes (1999) 79:216–247Crossref, Google Scholar
- Does market experience eliminate market anomalies? Quart. J. Econom. (2003) 118:41–71Crossref, Google Scholar
- Projection bias in predicting future utility. Quart. J. Econom. (2003) 118:1209–1248Crossref, Google Scholar
- Information projection: Model and applications. (2008) . Working paper, University of California, BerkeleyGoogle Scholar
- , Glaser H., Schröder E., Werder A. v. Hindsight bias im prinzipal agent kontext. Organisation im Wandel der Märkte (1998) (Gabler, Wiesbaden, Germany) 461–478Google Scholar
- Personality differences in hindsight bias. Memory (2003) 11:473–489Crossref, Google Scholar
- Psychology and economics. J. Econom. Literature (1998) 35:11–46Google Scholar
- , Koehler D., Harvey N. Twisted pair: Counterfactual thinking and the hindsight bias. Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (2004) (Blackwell, Oxford, UK) 258–273Crossref, Google Scholar
- Managing overconfidence. Sloan Management Rev. (1992) 33:7–17Google Scholar
- The effect of ambiguity in market setting. Management Sci. (1993) 39:602–615Link, Google Scholar
- Hindsight and causality. Personality Soc. Psych. Bull. (1991) 17:30–35Crossref, Google Scholar

