Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

Published Online:https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1781

References

  • Armstrong SJ (2001) Combining forecasts. Armstrong SJ, ed. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA), 417–439.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Boero G, Smith J, Wallis KF (2008) Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: The Bank of England survey of external forecasters. Econom. J. 118:1107–1127.Google Scholar
  • Bowles C, Friz R, Genre V, Kenny G, Meyler A, Rautanen T (2007) The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF): A review after eight years' experience. Eur. Central Bank Occasional Paper Series 59:1–68.Google Scholar
  • Clemen RT (1989) Combining forecasts: A review and annotated. Internat. J. Forecasting 5:559–583.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Clemen RT (2008) Comment on Cooke's classical method. Reliability Engrg. System Safety 93:760–765.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Clemen RT, Winkler RL (1986) Combining economic forecasts. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 4:39–46.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Clements MP (2010) Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts. Eur. Econom. Rev. 54:536–549.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Cooke RM (1991) Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Dawid AP, DeGroot MH, Mortera J (1995) Coherent combination of experts' opinions. Test 4:263–313.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Diebold FX, Tay AS, Wallis KF (1999) Evaluating density forecasts of inflation: The survey of professional forecasters. Engle R, White H, eds. Festschrift in Honor of C.W.J. Granger (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK), 76–90.Google Scholar
  • Engelberg J, Manski CF, Williams J (2009) Comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 27:30–41.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Giordani P, Söderlind P (2003) Inflation forecast uncertainty. Eur. Econom. Rev. 47:1037–1059.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hora SC (2004) Probability judgments for continuous quantities: Linear combinations and calibration. Management Sci. 50:597–604.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • Jose VRR, Winkler RL (2008) Simple robust average of forecasts: Some empirical results. Internat. J. Forecasting 24:163–169.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Larrick RP, Mannes AE, Soll JB (2011) The social psychology of the wisdom of crowds. Krueger JI, ed. Frontiers in Social Psychology: Social Judgment and Decision Making (Psychology Press, New York), 227–242.Google Scholar
  • Lichtendahl KC Jr, Grushka-Cockayne Y, Winkler RL (2013) Is it better to average probabilities or quantiles? Management Sci. 59:1594–1611.LinkGoogle Scholar
  • O'Hagan AO, Buck CE, Daneshkhah A, Eiser JR, Garthwaite PH, Jenkinson DJ, Oakley JE, Rakow T (2006) Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK).CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Prescott P, Hogg RV (1977) Trimmed and outer means and their variances. Amer. Statistician 31:156–157.Google Scholar
  • Ranjan R, Gneiting T (2010) Combining probability forecasts. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 72:71–91.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Smith J, Wallis KF (2009) A simple explanation of the forecast combination puzzle. Oxford Bull. Econom. Statist. 71:331–355.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Soll JB, Mannes AE, Larrick RP (2013) The “wisdom of crowds” effect. Pashler H, ed. Encyclopedia of the Mind, Vol. 2 (Sage Publications, Los Angeles), 776–778.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Stone M (1961) The opinion pool. Ann. Math. Statist. 32:1339–1342.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Winkler RL (1996) Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities. Test 5:1–60.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Winkler RL, Jose VRR (2011) Scoring rules. Cohcran J, ed. Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 7 (John Wiley & Sons, New York), 4733–4744.CrossrefGoogle Scholar
INFORMS site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some are essential to make our site work; Others help us improve the user experience. By using this site, you consent to the placement of these cookies. Please read our Privacy Statement to learn more.