Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem
Published Online:18 Nov 2013https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1781
References
- (2001) Combining forecasts. Armstrong SJ, ed. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA), 417–439.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2008) Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: The Bank of England survey of external forecasters. Econom. J. 118:1107–1127.Google Scholar
- (2007) The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF): A review after eight years' experience. Eur. Central Bank Occasional Paper Series 59:1–68.Google Scholar
- (1989) Combining forecasts: A review and annotated. Internat. J. Forecasting 5:559–583.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2008) Comment on Cooke's classical method. Reliability Engrg. System Safety 93:760–765.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1986) Combining economic forecasts. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 4:39–46.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2010) Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts. Eur. Econom. Rev. 54:536–549.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1991) Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1995) Coherent combination of experts' opinions. Test 4:263–313.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1999) Evaluating density forecasts of inflation: The survey of professional forecasters. Engle R, White H, eds. Festschrift in Honor of C.W.J. Granger (Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK), 76–90.Google Scholar
- (2009) Comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters. J. Bus. Econom. Statist. 27:30–41.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2003) Inflation forecast uncertainty. Eur. Econom. Rev. 47:1037–1059.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2004) Probability judgments for continuous quantities: Linear combinations and calibration. Management Sci. 50:597–604.Link, Google Scholar
- (2008) Simple robust average of forecasts: Some empirical results. Internat. J. Forecasting 24:163–169.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) The social psychology of the wisdom of crowds. Krueger JI, ed. Frontiers in Social Psychology: Social Judgment and Decision Making (Psychology Press, New York), 227–242.Google Scholar
- (2013) Is it better to average probabilities or quantiles? Management Sci. 59:1594–1611.Link, Google Scholar
- (2006) Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK).Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1977) Trimmed and outer means and their variances. Amer. Statistician 31:156–157.Google Scholar
- (2010) Combining probability forecasts. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 72:71–91.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2009) A simple explanation of the forecast combination puzzle. Oxford Bull. Econom. Statist. 71:331–355.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2013) The “wisdom of crowds” effect. Pashler H, ed. Encyclopedia of the Mind, Vol. 2 (Sage Publications, Los Angeles), 776–778.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1961) The opinion pool. Ann. Math. Statist. 32:1339–1342.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (1996) Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities. Test 5:1–60.Crossref, Google Scholar
- (2011) Scoring rules. Cohcran J, ed. Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 7 (John Wiley & Sons, New York), 4733–4744.Crossref, Google Scholar

